Grade the Slate

ChetBets College Football — Grade the Slate

Friday, September 18, 2026

Three-game FBS/FCS slate | Proposed positions: none | Official positions: none | Official exposure: 0.00u

Ledger reconciliation

September 17 Final Positions issued no college-football wager. The only fully recovered earlier result set remains September 5 at 5–1, but exact prices, units and ROI are unavailable; none are invented. Persistent watches are reviewed at original targets and never promoted merely because the market moved.

Complete current slate

Markets are from the September 18 CBS Sports college-football odds board.

Event	Current market	Grade recommendation	Reason
Miami @ Wake Forest, 4:30 p.m. PT	Miami -20.5 -108; total 55.5	PASS	Large road chalk with no tracked trigger and insufficient price-adjusted edge.
Houston @ Texas Tech, 5:00 p.m. PT	Houston +7.5 -105; total 52.5	LEAN ONLY — 0.00u	The thesis remains interesting, but the fixed +10 trigger and +9.5 maximum were not reached.
Portland State @ Oregon, 7:30 p.m. PT	Oregon -57.5 -108; total 67.5/68.5	PASS	An extreme FBS/FCS spread creates rotation and back-door variance that defeats the confidence standard.

Ranked proposal board

Rank	Matchup	Start PT	Exact market	Source	Proposed units	Positive Edge	Devil Risk	Net Edge	Status
1	Houston @ Texas Tech	5:00 p.m. PT	Houston +7.5 -105	CBS Sports college-football odds board	0.00u official	Houston is 2–0 and the underdog thesis remains directionally interesting.	The fixed +10 trigger was never reached; the current number is beyond the +9.5 maximum.	-0.5	LEAN ONLY — POSITION WATCH NOT TRIGGERED

Published-selection integrity notice

Houston +7.5 -105 is a locked published 0u lean / Position Watch. Its original line, price and classification remain unchanged. The later prices below are availability updates, not replacements.

Timestamped market and availability updates

Time PT	Original published lean	Later verified state	Availability note
7:43 a.m.	Houston +7.5 -105	Houston +7.5 -108	Trigger still not reached; original 0u lean remains locked.
9:39 a.m.	Houston +7.5 -105	Houston +7.5 -108	Later market update only.
11:36 a.m.	Houston +7.5 -105	Houston +7.5 -112	Later market update only.
1:35 p.m.	Houston +7.5 -105	Houston +7.5 -112	Later market update only.
After 5:00 p.m. start	Houston +7.5 -105	Pregame market closed	Historical selection — not currently bettable. Retained visibly for separate 0u settlement.

The +10 promotion trigger was never reached, so no official wager was created and no retroactive promotion is permitted.

Houston–Texas Tech watch review

Watch ID: CFB-2026-W3-HOU-TTU-HOU+10

Current line: Houston +7.5 -105, CBS Sports, September 18 morning

Exact target: Houston +10 -110

Maximum playable: Houston +9.5 -110

Previous line: Houston +9.5

Movement: Two points toward Houston; target never reached and current number is beyond the maximum.

Status: OPEN — not triggered

Proposed units: 0.00u

Positive Edge: 8.1/10

Devil Risk: 8.6/10

Net Edge: -0.5

Houston is 2–0, and current reporting notes Texas Tech quarterback Will Hammond's inconsistency after an ACL recovery plus 417 passing yards allowed to Oregon State. The market has shortened from +9.5 to +7.5, so much of the underdog case is priced in. See the current matchup analysis.

Risk manager / pass explanation: Do not chase +7.5. A return to +10 -110 triggers full injury, weather and lineup revalidation; +9.5 -110 remains the maximum playable line.

Other persistent watches

Watch ID	Event	Fixed target	Maximum playable	Current	Status / action
CFB-2026-W3-SYR-PITT-U52	Syracuse @ Pittsburgh, Sep. 17	Under 52 -110	Under 51.5 -110	Final	EXPIRED. Never official; retained for auditability.
CFB-2026-W3-SMU-LOU-SMU+3	SMU @ Louisville	SMU +3 -110	SMU +2.5 -110	SMU +1.5 -105	OPEN — no trigger. Beyond maximum; no promotion.
CFB-2026-W3-LSU-MISS-MISS+3.5	LSU @ Ole Miss	Ole Miss +3.5 -110	Ole Miss +3 -110	Ole Miss +3 -105	OPEN — target not reached. Maximum line is present at better juice, but exact +3.5 trigger remains fixed.

Pass explanations and next changes

• Miami–Wake Forest: only meaningful favorite-price improvement plus verified availability could reopen it; no position at -20.5.
• Houston–Texas Tech: return to +10, or at minimum the documented +9.5 maximum, is required before a position can survive review.
• Portland State–Oregon: -57.5 remains a pass regardless of projected winner; rotation uncertainty is too high.
• SMU and Ole Miss watches remain future-game research only and require exact triggers plus injury and weather revalidation.
• Final Positions is the sole canonical ledger.

Official wagers: none. Official exposure: 0.00u. AUTO_PICKS unchanged.