ChetBets MLB — Lifetime Performance Recovery — September 15, 2026
Corrected recovered lifetime subtotal: 26–21–0, 67.50u risked, -0.1077u, -0.16% ROI. Team/game markets: 5–7, -19.95% ROI; player props: 21–14, +8.12% ROI. One position is pending and 44 dates are unresolved.
ChetBets MLB — Lifetime Performance Recovery
July 1 through September 15, 2026
Recovery verdict
The previous website lifetime snapshot showed only the September 5 launch card at 1–2. That was not the complete recovered history. The accessible prior controlling Lifetime/Graded ledger preserves 45 official MLB positions through August 27: 44 settled and one pending. GitHub history adds the September 5 official three-position Final Late-Slate card. September 15 Final Positions issued no official exposure.
The corrected recovered subset is therefore 26–21–0, 67.50u settled risk, -0.1077u net, and -0.16% ROI, plus one 1.50u pending Wheeler ticket. These are exact recovered-subset totals, not a claim of complete all-inception coverage.
The GitHub repository began September 5. Its data-bearing revisions were audited: the original automation store was empty; CFB recovery was added; the September 5 MLB launch Final card was stored in `lib/launch-content.ts`; the NFL artifact was explicitly scouting-only; and later September 15 report revisions contained no additional settled MLB pick rows. Cross-conversation retrieval was unavailable in this runtime, so the preserved controlling graded ledger supplied with the recovery record remains the historical source of truth.
Date-by-date source ledger
| Date | Classification / controlling reconciliation | Source | W-L | Settled risk | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Jul 2 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Jul 3 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Jul 4 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Jul 5 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Jul 6 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Jul 7 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Jul 8 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Jul 9 | GRADED — recovered canonical card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 2–1 | 2.25u | +0.5201u |
| Jul 10 | GRADED — recovered canonical card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 2–2 | 7.50u | +0.7500u |
| Jul 11 | GRADED — recovered canonical card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–3 | 7.50u | -4.6111u |
| Jul 12 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Jul 13 | NO REGULAR-SEASON CARD — Home Run Derby period | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u |
| Jul 14 | NO REGULAR-SEASON CARD — All-Star Game | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u |
| Jul 15 | NO REGULAR-SEASON SLATE | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u |
| Jul 16 | GRADED — Final card superseded preliminary card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–1 | 1.50u | -1.5000u |
| Jul 17 | GRADED — Final card controlled | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–0 | 1.50u | +1.3514u |
| Jul 18 | GRADED — line-integrity exception preserved | Prior controlling graded ledger | 2–0 | 2.75u | +3.1755u |
| Jul 19 | GRADED — Final card controlled | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–0 | 1.50u | +1.3043u |
| Jul 20 | GRADED — Martinez corrected to O16.5 Outs | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–1 | 2.75u | -0.4583u |
| Jul 21 | GRADED — Final card controlled | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–1 | 1.75u | -1.7500u |
| Jul 22 | GRADED — Final card controlled | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–0 | 1.50u | +0.9677u |
| Jul 23 | VERIFIED NO ACTION — preliminary card removed | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u |
| Jul 24 | GRADED — Manaea P1 / Drohan P2 | Prior controlling graded ledger | 2–0 | 2.75u | +2.1955u |
| Jul 25 | GRADED — recovered canonical card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–1 | 2.75u | -0.2010u |
| Jul 26 | GRADED — Final card controlled | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–0 | 1.50u | +1.0870u |
| Jul 27 | GRADED — Final card controlled | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–1 | 1.50u | -1.5000u |
| Jul 28 | GRADED — recovered canonical card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–2 | 2.75u | -2.7500u |
| Jul 29 | GRADED — Final card controlled | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–0 | 1.50u | +0.9375u |
| Jul 30 | GRADED — recovered canonical card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 2–0 | 2.75u | +2.1008u |
| Jul 31 | GRADED — Final card superseded preliminary card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–1 | 2.75u | -0.5234u |
| Aug 1 | GRADED — recovered canonical card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 2–0 | 2.75u | +2.1433u |
| Aug 2 | PARTIALLY GRADED — Cole settled; Wheeler pending | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–1 + pending | 1.25u settled | -1.2500u |
| Aug 3 | GRADED — Final card controlled | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–1 | 1.50u | -1.5000u |
| Aug 4 | GRADED — recovered canonical card | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–1 | 2.75u | -0.1000u |
| Aug 5 | GRADED — Burke corrected to O17.5 Pitcher Outs | Prior controlling graded ledger | 2–1 | 3.75u | +0.6358u |
| Aug 6 | GRADED — Cease removed; Miller corrected | Prior controlling graded ledger | 1–1 | 2.50u | -0.0909u |
| Aug 7 | VERIFIED NO ACTION — Final Picks 1–5 all Pass | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u |
| Aug 8 | VERIFIED NO ACTION — Final Picks 1–5 all Pass | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u |
| Aug 9 | VERIFIED NO ACTION — Final Picks 1–5 all Pass | Prior controlling graded ledger | 0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u |
| Aug 10 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 11 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 12 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 13 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 14 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 15 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 16 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 17 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 18 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 19 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 20 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 21 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 22 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 23 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 24 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 25 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 26 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 27 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 28 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 29 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 30 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Aug 31 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 1 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 2 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 3 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 4 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 5 | GRADED — GitHub Final Late-Slate Positions | GitHub launch-content Final card + verified results | 1–2 | 4.25u | -1.0417u |
| Sep 6 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 7 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 8 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 9 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 10 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 11 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 12 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 13 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 14 | UNRESOLVED — controlling Final/Graded ledger not recovered | No controlling source recovered | — | — | — |
| Sep 15 | VERIFIED NO ACTION AT FINAL-POSITIONS CHECKPOINT | GitHub September 15 Final Positions | 0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u |
Calendar dates audited: 77. Graded betting dates: 25, including one partially graded/pending date. Verified no-action / no-regular-season dates: 8. Unresolved dates: 44.
Exact recovered performance
| Metric | Recovered canonical subset |
|---|---|
| Official positions recovered | 48 |
| Settled positions | 47 |
| Pending positions | 1 |
| Wins | 26 |
| Losses | 21 |
| Pushes | 0 |
| Win rate | 55.32% |
| Settled risk | 67.50u |
| Pending exposure | 1.50u |
| Total assigned recovered exposure | 69.00u |
| Net | -0.1077u |
| ROI | -0.16% |
| Certified aggregate CLV | Unavailable |
Math: 26 ÷ 47 = 55.3191%. -0.1077u ÷ 67.50u = -0.1596%.
Full recovered official position history
| Date | Rank | Exact market / statistic | Posted odds | Units | Result | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9 | P1 | Giants Moneyline | -132 | 0.90u | WIN | +0.6818u |
| Jul 9 | P2 | Mariners Moneyline | -132 | 0.75u | LOSS | -0.7500u |
| Jul 9 | P3 | Jesús Luzardo Over 7.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | approx. -102 | 0.60u | WIN — 11 Ks | +0.5882u |
| Jul 10 | P1 | Rays Moneyline | -120 | 3.25u | WIN | +2.7083u |
| Jul 10 | P2 | Astros Moneyline | -140 | 2.25u | LOSS | -2.2500u |
| Jul 10 | P3 | Braves F5 -0.5 Run Line | -120 | 1.25u | WIN | +1.0417u |
| Jul 10 | P4 | Giants F5 -0.5 Run Line | -120 | 0.75u | LOSS | -0.7500u |
| Jul 11 | P1 | Marlins Moneyline | -154 | 3.00u | LOSS | -3.0000u |
| Jul 11 | P2 | Tigers Moneyline | +120 | 2.25u | LOSS | -2.2500u |
| Jul 11 | P3 | White Sox Moneyline | -108 | 1.50u | WIN | +1.3889u |
| Jul 11 | P4 | Rangers Moneyline | -118 | 0.75u | LOSS | -0.7500u |
| Jul 16 | P1 | Christian Scott Under 15.5 Pitcher Outs | -129 | 1.50u | LOSS — 17 outs | -1.5000u |
| Jul 17 | P1 | Troy Melton Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -111 | 1.50u | WIN — 9 Ks | +1.3514u |
| Jul 18 | P1 | Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | +130 exception | 1.50u | WIN — 3 Ks | +1.9500u |
| Jul 18 | P2 | Logan Webb Under 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -102 | 1.25u | WIN — 5 Ks | +1.2255u |
| Jul 19 | P1 | Alan Rangel Under 13.5 Pitcher Outs | -115 | 1.50u | WIN — 12 outs | +1.3043u |
| Jul 20 | P1 | Jacob Misiorowski Under 3.5 Hits Allowed | +100 | 1.50u | LOSS — 4 hits | -1.5000u |
| Jul 20 | P2 | Nick Martinez Over 16.5 Pitcher Outs | -120 Novig | 1.25u | WIN — 18 outs | +1.0417u |
| Jul 21 | P1 | Chase Burns Over 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -110 bet365 | 1.75u | LOSS — 6 Ks | -1.7500u |
| Jul 22 | P1 | Logan Henderson Over 14.5 Pitcher Outs | -155 BetMGM | 1.50u | WIN — 15 outs | +0.9677u |
| Jul 24 | P1 | Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Hits Allowed | -130 BetMGM | 1.50u | WIN — 6 hits | +1.1538u |
| Jul 24 | P2 | Shane Drohan Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -120 Novig | 1.25u | WIN — 6 Ks | +1.0417u |
| Jul 25 | P1 | Sonny Gray Under 18.5 Pitcher Outs | -143 DraftKings | 1.50u | WIN — 15 outs | +1.0490u |
| Jul 25 | P2 | Eury Pérez Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -153 Novig | 1.25u | LOSS — 2 Ks | -1.2500u |
| Jul 26 | P1 | Parker Messick Over 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -138 FanDuel | 1.50u | WIN — 6 Ks | +1.0870u |
| Jul 27 | P1 | Tyler Phillips Under 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | +130 DraftKings | 1.50u | LOSS — 5 Ks | -1.5000u |
| Jul 28 | P1 | Aaron Nola Under 16.5 Pitcher Outs | -105 BetMGM | 1.50u | LOSS — 17 outs | -1.5000u |
| Jul 28 | P2 | Logan Henderson Under 15.5 Pitcher Outs | -158 DraftKings | 1.25u | LOSS — 17 outs | -1.2500u |
| Jul 29 | P1 | Joe Ryan Under 18.5 Pitcher Outs | -160 DraftKings | 1.50u | WIN — 18 outs | +0.9375u |
| Jul 30 | P1 | Sean Burke Over 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -130 Fanatics | 1.50u | WIN — 10 Ks | +1.1538u |
| Jul 30 | P2 | Eury Pérez Under 4.5 Hits Allowed | -132 DraftKings | 1.25u | WIN — 3 hits | +0.9470u |
| Jul 31 | P1 | Dylan Cease Over 7.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -123 DraftKings | 1.50u | LOSS — 7 Ks | -1.5000u |
| Jul 31 | P2 | Shane Drohan Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -128 FanDuel | 1.25u | WIN — 7 Ks | +0.9766u |
| Aug 1 | P1 | Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -115 BetMGM | 1.50u | WIN — 3 Ks | +1.3043u |
| Aug 1 | P2 | Tyler Mahle Under 5.5 Hits Allowed | -149 DraftKings | 1.25u | WIN — 5 hits | +0.8389u |
| Aug 2 | P1 | Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -110 Betway | 1.50u | PENDING — 3 Ks / 2.0 IP | Pending |
| Aug 2 | P2 | Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | +120 bet365 | 1.25u | LOSS — 5 Ks | -1.2500u |
| Aug 3 | P1 | Shane Bieber Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed | -115 Caesars | 1.50u | LOSS — 1 ER | -1.5000u |
| Aug 4 | P1 | Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -147 DraftKings | 1.50u | LOSS — 6 Ks | -1.5000u |
| Aug 4 | P2 | Logan Henderson Over 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | +112 FanDuel | 1.25u | WIN — 8 Ks | +1.4000u |
| Aug 5 | P1 | Sean Burke Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs | -120 Novig | 1.50u | LOSS — 13 outs | -1.5000u |
| Aug 5 | P2 | Noah Cameron Over 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -138 FanDuel | 1.25u | WIN — 9 Ks | +0.9058u |
| Aug 5 | P3 | Christian Scott Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | +123 FanDuel | 1.00u | WIN — 7 Ks | +1.2300u |
| Aug 6 | P1 | Miles Mikolas Under 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -165 bet365 | 1.50u | WIN — 1 K | +0.9091u |
| Aug 6 | P3 | Bryce Miller Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -105 BetMGM | 1.00u | LOSS — 5 Ks | -1.0000u |
| Sep 5 | P1 | Cardinals / Rockies Over 10.5 (full game total) | -120 | 1.75u | WIN — 17 runs | +1.4583u |
| Sep 5 | P2 | Nationals / Dodgers Under 7.5 (full game total) | -102 | 1.50u | LOSS — 11 runs | -1.5000u |
| Sep 5 | P3 | George Kirby Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts | -102 | 1.00u | LOSS — 5 Ks | -1.0000u |
Giants
Mariners
Rays
Astros
Braves
Marlins
Tigers
White Sox
Rangers
Cardinals
Rockies
Nationals
DodgersSources for the September 5 addition: Final card revision, Cardinals 7–Rockies 10, September 5 MLB scoreboard, and Athletics–Mariners box score.
AthleticsWeekly performance blocks
| Block | Settled W-L | Risk | Net | ROI / integrity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1–3 | — | — | — | Three unresolved dates |
| Jul 4–10 | 4–3 | 9.75u | +1.2701u | +13.03%; Jul 4–8 unresolved |
| Jul 11–17 | 2–4 | 10.50u | -4.7598u | -45.33%; Jul 12 unresolved |
| Jul 18–24 | 7–2 | 13.00u | +5.4348u | +41.81% |
| Jul 25–31 | 6–5 | 15.50u | -0.8492u | -5.48% |
| Aug 1–7 | 6–5 + pending | 14.50u settled | -0.1618u | -1.12%; Wheeler pending |
| Aug 8–14 | 0–0 recovered | 0.00u | 0.0000u | Aug 8–9 no action; Aug 10–14 unresolved |
| Aug 15–21 | — | — | — | Seven unresolved dates |
| Aug 22–28 | — | — | — | Seven unresolved dates |
| Aug 29–Sep 4 | — | — | — | Seven unresolved dates |
| Sep 5–11 | 1–2 | 4.25u | -1.0417u | -24.51%; Sep 6–11 unresolved |
| Sep 12–15 | 0–0 recovered | 0.00u | 0.0000u | Sep 12–14 unresolved; Sep 15 no action |
Best recovered day remains July 18 at 2–0, +3.1755u. Worst remains July 11 at 1–3, -4.6111u.
Rank performance
| Rank | W-L | Win rate | Risk | Net | ROI | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick 1 | 14–10 | 58.33% | 39.15u | +1.2664u | +3.23% | Wheeler 1.50u |
| Pick 2 | 8–7 | 53.33% | 20.50u | -2.1229u | -10.36% | None |
| Pick 3 | 4–2 | 66.67% | 6.35u | +2.2488u | +35.41% | None |
| Pick 4 | 0–2 | 0.00% | 1.50u | -1.5000u | -100.00% | None |
| Pick 5 | 0–0 | — | 0.00u | 0.0000u | — | None |
Market performance
| Market family | W-L | Risk | Net | ROI | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-game Moneyline | 3–5 | 14.65u | -4.2210u | -28.81% | — |
| F5 Run Line | 1–1 | 2.00u | +0.2917u | +14.58% | — |
| Full-game totals | 1–1 | 3.25u | -0.0417u | -1.28% | — |
| Pitcher Strikeouts | 13–8 | 27.60u | +4.3733u | +15.85% | Wheeler |
| Pitcher Outs | 5–4 | 13.00u | -0.4498u | -3.46% | — |
| Hits Allowed | 3–1 | 5.50u | +1.4397u | +26.18% | — |
| Earned Runs Allowed | 0–1 | 1.50u | -1.5000u | -100.00% | — |
| All player props | 21–14 | 47.60u | +3.8633u | +8.12% | Wheeler |
| All team sides (ML + F5 run line) | 4–6 | 16.65u | -3.9293u | -23.60% | — |
| All team/game markets (sides + full-game totals) | 5–7 | 19.90u | -3.9710u | -19.95% | — |
MLB market-mix audit
| Recovered settled class | W-L-P | Positions | Share | Risk | Net | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team/game markets | 5–7–0 | 12 | 25.53% | 19.90u | -3.9710u | -19.95% |
| Player props | 21–14–0 | 35 | 74.47% | 47.60u | +3.8633u | +8.12% |
| Total settled | 26–21–0 | 47 | 100.00% | 67.50u | -0.1077u | -0.16% |
Including the pending Wheeler pitcher-strikeout ticket, the 48 recovered assigned positions are 12 team/game markets (25.00%) and 36 player props (75.00%). This documents the historical mix; it does not rewrite old selections. The binding construction target applies prospectively: qualified team/game markets are researched and ranked first, with approximately two-thirds of future official positions allocated to team/game markets and one-third to props. Weak positions are never forced merely to satisfy the ratio.
Favorite, underdog, price and sizing performance
| Category | W-L | Risk | Net | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite full-game ML | 3–4 | 12.40u | -1.9710u | -15.90% |
| Underdog full-game ML | 0–1 | 2.25u | -2.2500u | -100.00% |
| All negative-priced positions | 23–17 | 57.25u | +1.8123u | +3.17% |
| Even/plus-money positions | 3–4 | 10.25u | -1.9200u | -18.73% |
| ≤1.50u | 24–17 | 53.25u | +4.9757u | +9.34% |
| >1.50u | 2–4 | 14.25u | -5.0834u | -35.67% |
| Unit size | W-L | Risk | Net | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60u | 1–0 | 0.60u | +0.5882u | +98.04% |
| 0.75u | 0–3 | 2.25u | -2.2500u | -100.00% |
| 0.90u | 1–0 | 0.90u | +0.6818u | +75.76% |
| 1.00u | 1–2 | 3.00u | -0.7700u | -25.67% |
| 1.25u | 9–3 | 15.00u | +5.6687u | +37.79% |
| 1.50u | 12–9 | 31.50u | +1.0569u | +3.36% |
| 1.75u | 1–1 | 3.50u | -0.2917u | -8.33% |
| 2.25u | 0–2 | 4.50u | -4.5000u | -100.00% |
| 3.00u | 0–1 | 3.00u | -3.0000u | -100.00% |
| 3.25u | 1–0 | 3.25u | +2.7083u | +83.33% |
Closing-line value
Certified aggregate lifetime CLV is unavailable, not 0%. A complete timestamped same-sportsbook close series was not preserved.
Preserved directional evidence remains favorable for Henderson O14.5 Outs, Nola U16.5 Outs, Henderson U15.5 Outs, Burke O6.5 Ks, Cole O6.5 Ks, and Henderson O6.5 Ks; Rodriguez U5.5 Ks was slightly unfavorable. July 9 Luzardo's approximately -102 entry has public same-day corroboration, while July 18 Rodriguez +130 remains plausible but ticket-level uncertified. The September 5 card has no certified same-book closes. These observations are diagnostic only.
Reconciled corrections and integrity exceptions
- Inception is treated as July 1, 2026, per the current instruction. Earlier reports that referenced June 27 are not used to expand this report backward.
- The prior website lifetime row of 1–2, -1.0417u was incomplete because it omitted the preserved July–August ledger. It is replaced by the combined recovered subtotal above.
- July 20 Martinez is Over 16.5 Pitcher Outs.
- August 5 Burke is Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs, not the superseded K market.
- August 6 Cease is excluded; Final Positions removed him.
- August 6 Miller is Over 5.5 Ks -105 BetMGM.
- August 7–9 are official no-action cards; their 10–5 diagnostic Pass pool never enters W-L or ROI.
- September 5's three late-slate positions are official because the GitHub Final Late-Slate report explicitly designated them.
- The September 5 launch pick rows still show pending in another website file, but the later verified performance report grades them 1–2. This report uses the later grade and documents the stale-row conflict.
- Wheeler O7.5 Ks -110 Betway, 1.50u remains pending because the shortened-game sportsbook settlement rule is unrecovered.
- 44 calendar dates remain unresolved. They are not treated as no-action days.
- Cross-conversation search was unavailable; no missing position was reconstructed from final results.
If Wheeler is voided, totals remain 26–21, -0.1077u, -0.16% ROI. If Wheeler is graded a loss, the subtotal becomes 26–22, 69.00u risked, -1.6077u, -2.33% ROI.
Strengths
Player props remain profitable at +8.12% ROI, pitcher strikeouts remain the strongest established larger-sample family at +15.85% before Wheeler, Hits Allowed is 3–1 and +26.18%, Pick 3 is +35.41% ROI, and the ≤1.50u band remains profitable at +9.34% ROI.
Weaknesses
The recovered win rate is 55.32%, below the 65% operating target. Full-game moneylines remain the largest established drag at -28.81% ROI; team sides are -23.60%; Pick 2 is negative; Pick 4 is 0–2; Pitcher Outs is mildly negative; and >1.50u exposure is -35.67% ROI. Most importantly, 44 dates lack recoverable controlling cards, so these findings describe only the recovered subset.
No model weights, ranking rules, conversion thresholds, or permanent unit-sizing rules are changed.