ChetBets MLB — Nightly Report Card — September 15, 2026
Official card: 0–0–0, 0.00u risked, 0.0000u net. All six Final candidates were Passes; the diagnostic pool finished 2–4 (team markets 2–2, props 0–2).
ChetBets MLB — Nightly Report Card
September 15, 2026
Executive result
| Metric | Official result |
|---|---|
| Official positions | 0 |
| W-L-P | 0–0–0 |
| Risked units | 0.00u |
| Net units | 0.0000u |
| ROI / win rate | N/A — no capital risked |
| Certified official CLV | Unavailable |
The controlling September 15 Final Positions ledger designated all six candidates PASS / 0.00u. No September 15 MLB row exists in `AUTO_PICKS`, so no selection, odds, units, result, or profit field was created or modified.
Fourteen MLB games were final at the report checkpoint. Miami–Arizona remained tied 1–1 in the ninth, but it was unrelated to every audited Final candidate. The official card can therefore close at 0–0–0 without grading or substituting any unfinished market.
Miami
ArizonaSource: September 15 MLB scoreboard.
MLB core market-mix audit
| Class | Final candidates | Candidate share | Official W-L-P | Official risk | Official net | Official ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team/game markets | 4 | 66.7% | 0–0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u | N/A |
| Player props | 2 | 33.3% | 0–0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u | N/A |
| Total | 6 | 100% | 0–0–0 | 0.00u | 0.0000u | N/A |
The candidate pool met the binding 4-team/2-prop allocation. The official mix is 0 team markets and 0 props because no wager cleared the Final conversion standard. No weak position was forced to manufacture exposure.
Diagnostic Pass results
| Rank | Type | Passed market | Posted reference | Actual | Diagnostic outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team | Brewers full-game ML | -215 | Brewers 5, Pirates 1 | WIN |
| 2 | Team | Dodgers full-game ML | -240 | Dodgers 4, Reds 0 | WIN |
| 3 | Team | Phillies full-game ML | -215 | Phillies 3, Nationals 6 | LOSS |
| 4 | Team | Padres full-game ML | -188 | Padres 3, Rockies 9 | LOSS |
| 5 | Prop | Jacob Misiorowski O7.5 pitcher Ks | -107 DraftKings | 7 Ks | LOSS |
| 6 | Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto O7.5 pitcher Ks | -112 public reference | 7 Ks | LOSS |
| Total | 2–4 diagnostic only |
Brewers
Pirates
Dodgers
Reds
Phillies
Nationals
Padres
RockiesMLB confirms Misiorowski struck out seven over five scoreless innings, while Yamamoto struck out seven over seven scoreless innings. Both Overs missed by exactly half a strikeout. Sources: Misiorowski’s seven strikeouts, Yamamoto’s seven strikeouts.
| Diagnostic class | W-L-P | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Team/game candidates | 2–2–0 | Two expensive favorites won; two lost outright |
| Player-prop candidates | 0–2–0 | Both O7.5 K thresholds missed at seven |
| Combined Pass pool | 2–4–0 | Excluded from official performance |
Closing-line audit
No exact same-sportsbook, timestamped closing price was certified for any candidate. Misiorowski’s DraftKings close was not recovered. Yamamoto’s Final ledger used an unidentified -112 public reference; a same-day FanDuel snapshot showed -104, but it was not a certified closing line or the same source. Because all candidates were Passes, there is no official CLV statistic and no synthetic CLV is reported.
Wins, misses, variance, strengths and weaknesses
Strengths: Final discipline avoided the Phillies -215 and Padres -188 outright losses. The revised research pool also complied exactly with the 66.7% team-market / 33.3% prop construction rule.
Misses: The Brewers and Dodgers heavy favorites both won, but they were Passed because the available prices did not establish verified value above break-even. These remain missed diagnostic winners, not official wins.
Variance: Both pitcher props landed on seven strikeouts against an O7.5 threshold. Misiorowski did so in five scoreless innings and Yamamoto in seven scoreless innings, showing why strong real-life pitching does not guarantee a strikeout Over.
Weakness: The prop candidate set went 0–2, and the team-market set was only 2–2 despite four favorites. That supports price sensitivity and exact-threshold discipline rather than forcing action.
Verified lesson: Research team/game markets first and preserve the normal two-thirds/one-third mix, but promote only positions with an exact, price-supported edge. No model weights or permanent sizing rules change from a zero-exposure diagnostic card.
GRADED CANONICAL CARD LEDGER
| Rank | Type | Exact market | Posted odds | Closing odds | Units | Result | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team | Brewers full-game ML | -215 reference | Unavailable | 0.00u | PASS — statistical WIN, 5–1 | 0.0000u |
| 2 | Team | Dodgers full-game ML | -240 reference | Unavailable | 0.00u | PASS — statistical WIN, 4–0 | 0.0000u |
| 3 | Team | Phillies full-game ML | -215 reference | Unavailable | 0.00u | PASS — statistical LOSS, 3–6 | 0.0000u |
| 4 | Team | Padres full-game ML | -188 reference | Unavailable | 0.00u | PASS — statistical LOSS, 3–9 | 0.0000u |
| 5 | Prop | Misiorowski O7.5 pitcher strikeouts | -107 DraftKings | Unavailable | 0.00u | PASS — statistical LOSS, 7 Ks | 0.0000u |
| 6 | Prop | Yamamoto O7.5 pitcher strikeouts | -112 public reference | Unavailable | 0.00u | PASS — statistical LOSS, 7 Ks | 0.0000u |
Official record: 0–0–0
Official risk: 0.00u
Official net: 0.0000u
Official ROI: N/A
Diagnostic Pass record: 2–4–0