Grade the Slate

ChetBets NFL — Grade the Slate

September 17, 2026

Events analyzed: 1

Research leans: 1

Proposed research exposure: 0.50u

Official exposure: 0.00u

Source refresh: 2026-09-17T13:01:11.502Z

The model uses up to 30 completed games and 10,000 deterministic simulations. It is a research comparison, not a calibrated injury/lineup-adjusted probability.

Ranked proposal board

Rank	Matchup	Exact market	Source price	Proposed units	Positive Edge	Devil Risk	Net Edge	Risk-manager note	Status
1	Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills	Under 54.5 (+100)	DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:01:11.502Z	0.50u proposed / 0.00u official	Model 52.6 versus posted 54.5	Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest.	+10.4 modeled return per $100	Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion.	LEAN ONLY

Full-slate decision ledger

Every verified event receives exactly one final Grade recommendation.

#	Start PT	Matchup	Evaluated market	Source	Units	Positive Edge	Devil Risk	Net Edge	Risk manager	Pass explanation	Recommendation
1	Sep 17, 5:15 PM	Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills	Under 54.5 (+100)	DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:01:11.502Z	0.50u proposed / 0.00u official	Model 52.6 versus posted 54.5	Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest.	+10.4 modeled return per $100	Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion.	Not a pass at Grade; remains a non-canonical lean.	LEAN ONLY

Market coverage

Moneylines, spreads/run lines/puck lines and totals were evaluated where exact prices existed. Team totals, period markets and player props remain unavailable when the feed lacks an exact market/price. Missing markets are not reconstructed.

This report does not modify AUTO_PICKS. Final Positions alone is canonical.