NFL — Morning Scout — New Release
New release for Sunday's games: one official at 0.50u and two distinct 0u leans. Original watches remain unchanged.
NFL — September 19 redelivery
New publication: 2026-09-19T16:12:01.812Z. This release applies from this timestamp; it is not a backdated morning card.
| Rank | Selection | Status | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 (-102) | LEAN | 0u |
| 3 | New York Jets +3.5 (-105) | LEAN | 0u |
Cincinnati Bengals
New York JetsNew release for Sunday's games: one official at 0.50u and two distinct 0u leans. Original watches remain unchanged.
[Read the full new analysis, exact prices, countercases, sources and three-pass reconciliation](/sports/nfl/reports/final-positions/2026-09-19).
The full earlier slate inventory remains below. Its old PASS decisions and price snapshots describe that publication only; the new card above is the current decision. Earlier leans remain in the historical record at their original terms.
Review scope: fresh market screen, deeper matchup review of finalists and alternatives, adverse-evidence review, then one reconciled release. This does not claim independent model simulations or verified analysis of every possible player prop.
Earlier publication — preserved verbatim
Original publication: 2026-09-19T12:20:00.000Z
ChetBets NFL — Morning Scout
Saturday, September 19, 2026
Official wagers: NONE | Official exposure: 0.00u | Model changes: NONE
TODAY'S SLATE
No NFL game is scheduled Saturday. No official position is issued.
SEVEN-DAY BOARD
The complete rolling window is verified from the NFL schedule; current Week 2 prices are from CBS Sports at approximately 5:05 a.m. PT.
| Date | Game | Current market | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 | CIN @ HOU | HOU -2.5 -105; 45.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | PIT @ NE | NE -4.5 -120; 41.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | CLE @ TB | TB -8.5 +100; 41.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | CAR @ ATL | CAR -2.5 -115; 43.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | NO @ BAL | BAL -8 -111; ~46 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | MIN @ CHI | CHI -4.5 -108; 47.5–48.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | GB @ NYJ | NYJ +3.5 -105; 44.5 | PASS — fixed Jets +5 target not reached |
| Sun Sep 20 | PHI @ TEN | PHI -7 -110; 39.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | JAX @ DEN | DEN -2.5 -118; 45.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | LV @ LAC | LAC -6.5 -115; 43.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | WSH @ DAL | DAL -3.5 -120; 50.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | SEA @ ARI | ARI +4.5 -120; ~41 | PASS — fixed Arizona +5.5 target not reached |
| Sun Sep 20 | MIA @ SF | SF -13.5 -105; 44.5 | PASS |
| Sun Sep 20 | IND @ KC | KC -6.5 -111; 46.5 | PASS |
| Mon Sep 21 | NYG @ LAR | LAR -7 -118; 47.5–48.5 | PASS |
| Thu Sep 24 | ATL @ GB | Market not verified at this checkpoint | PASS — no executable verified price |
HOU
PIT
CLE
CAR
ATL
BAL
MIN
CHI
PHI
TEN
JAX
DEN
LAC
WSH
DAL
SEA
ARI
MIA
IND
NYG
LARPOSITION WATCH
| Watch ID | Game | Market watched | Prior | Current / source / timestamp | Fixed target | Maximum playable | Thesis | Invalidation | Next check | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL-2026-W2-GB-NYJ-NYJ+5 | Sep 20, 10:00 a.m. PT — GB @ NYJ | Jets spread | +3.5 -105 | +3.5 -105, CBS, Sep 19 5:05 a.m. PT | NYJ +5 -110 | NYJ +4.5 -110 | Key-number cushion against Green Bay | Major Jets QB/OL loss or worse than max | Sep 20, 7:00 a.m. PT | OPEN |
| NFL-2026-W2-SEA-ARI-ARI+5.5 | Sep 20, 1:25 p.m. PT — SEA @ ARI | Cardinals spread | +3.5 +100 | +4.5 -120, CBS, Sep 19 5:05 a.m. PT | ARI +5.5 -110 | ARI +5 -110 | Home dog plus Seattle QB downgrade | Arizona QB injury, Seattle QB upgrade, or worse than max | Sep 20, 10:00 a.m. PT | OPEN |
| NFL-2026-W2-DET-BUF-O52.5 | Sep 17 — DET @ BUF | Game total Over | 54.5 before kickoff | Event final: BUF 41, DET 31 | O52.5 -110 | O53.5 -110 | Historical watch only; target was not reached | Event started before trigger | Closed | EXPIRED |
Green Bay
DET
BUFA watch is research, not a wager. The expired Detroit–Buffalo watch is retained for auditability and is not retroactively graded as a selection.
LINE MOVEMENT
Jets +3.5 -105 is unchanged from the prior report and remains 1.5 points short of the fixed +5 trigger. Arizona moved from +3.5 +100 to +4.5 -120: one point toward the target, but the worse juice still fails both the +5.5 target and +5 -110 maximum-playable rule. Targets are not moved to chase the market.
INJURY/AVAILABILITY WATCH
Seattle ruled out Sam Darnold and will start Drew Lock, which supports the Arizona direction but does not authorize a worse price. The Jets watch still requires final quarterback/offensive-line confirmation. Late inactive lists, wind, and verified quarterback changes remain mandatory rechecks. NFL injury report
NEXT CHECKPOINTS
Recheck Sunday inactives, weather, and same-book prices two to three hours before each kickoff. A target hit triggers formal review, not automatic promotion. Atlanta–Green Bay on September 24 remains a schedule-only pass until an executable market is verified.
No official wager. No AUTO_PICKS change. No model change.