College Football — Morning Scout — New Release
New release: one official at 0.50u and two distinct 0u leans for upcoming Saturday games. No retroactive selections.
College Football — September 19 redelivery
New publication: 2026-09-19T16:12:01.812Z. This release applies from this timestamp; it is not a backdated morning card.
| Rank | Selection | Status | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ole Miss +3 (-112) | LEAN | 0u |
| 3 | James Madison +2.5 (-115) | LEAN | 0u |
Ole Miss
James MadisonNew release: one official at 0.50u and two distinct 0u leans for upcoming Saturday games. No retroactive selections.
[Read the full new analysis, exact prices, countercases, sources and three-pass reconciliation](/sports/cfb/reports/final-positions/2026-09-19).
The full earlier slate inventory remains below. Its old PASS decisions and price snapshots describe that publication only; the new card above is the current decision. Earlier leans remain in the historical record at their original terms.
Review scope: fresh market screen, deeper matchup review of finalists and alternatives, adverse-evidence review, then one reconciled release. This does not claim independent model simulations or verified analysis of every possible player prop.
Earlier publication — preserved verbatim
Original publication: 2026-09-19T12:20:00.000Z
ChetBets College Football — Morning Scout
Saturday, September 19, 2026
71-game current slate | Official wagers: NONE | Official exposure: 0.00u | Model changes: NONE
AUDIT NOTE
Houston +7.5 -112 from the September 18 report remains locked as a published 0u lean, not an official position. Texas Tech won 28-26, so the original Houston lean is separately graded WIN at 0u. The original line, price and classification are unchanged. Game report
Houston
Texas TechTODAY'S SLATE
The complete FBS board is verified against the ESPN schedule; current prices are from CBS Sports around 5:05 a.m. PT. A full pass is deliberate: no fixed target has triggered and no weak position is forced.
| Game | Current market | Decision |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina @ Delaware | DEL -5.5; 56.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Georgia @ Arkansas | UGA -24.5; 54.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Kent State @ Ohio State | OSU -52.5; 59.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Buffalo @ Penn State | PSU -40.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Tulane @ Kansas State | KSU -20.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Bowling Green @ Iowa State | ISU -23.5; 43.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Arizona State vs Kansas (London) | ASU -5.5; 50.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Mercer @ Georgia Tech | GT -38.5; 58.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| North Carolina @ Clemson | CLEM -3; UNC +3.5 -120; 44.5 | PASS — persistent watch open; fixed target not reached |
| Akron @ Minnesota | MINN -23.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| North Texas @ Texas State | TXST -3; 62.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin | WIS -23.5; 44.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| NC State @ Vanderbilt | VAN -3; 50.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Wyoming @ Central Michigan | WYO -1.5; 38.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Maine @ Boston College | BC -38.5; 54.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Southern Illinois @ Illinois | ILL -38.5; 55.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Temple @ Toledo | TOL -6; 48.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Kentucky @ Texas A&M | TA&M -16.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Florida State @ Alabama | ALA -19.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| USC @ Rutgers | USC -21.5; 57.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| SMU @ Louisville | LOU -1.5; SMU +2 -111; 58.5 | PASS — persistent watch open; fixed target not reached |
| Utah State @ Utah | UTAH -27.5; 56.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| UTEP @ Michigan | MICH -34.5; 48.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati | CIN -15.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Wagner @ California | CAL -58.5; 65.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Duquesne @ Washington State | WSU -38.5; 53.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Stonehill @ Massachusetts | MASS -31.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Western Kentucky @ Indiana | IU -44.5; 60.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Northern Iowa @ Iowa | IOWA -38.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Stanford @ Duke | DUKE -10; 50.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Ball State @ Liberty | LIB -14.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Louisiana Tech @ Baylor | BAY -19.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Mississippi State @ South Carolina | SC -4; 58.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| SE Louisiana @ UL Monroe | ULM -10.5; 48.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| East Carolina @ Old Dominion | ODU -3; 48.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| FIU @ FAU | FAU -6.5; 62.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Charlotte @ Appalachian State | APP -17.5; 52.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Marshall @ Missouri State | MRSH -4; 53.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Troy @ Missouri | MIZ -27.5; 50.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Florida @ Auburn | FLA -2.5; 53.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Georgia State @ UCF | UCF -17.5; 50.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Murray State @ Oklahoma State | OKST -56.5; 70.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| UConn @ Southern Miss | CONN -3; 54.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| UT Martin @ Memphis | MEM -34.5; 56.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Western Michigan @ Rice | WMU -8.5; 43.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Delaware State @ South Florida | USF -37.5; 61.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Nevada @ Middle Tennessee | NEV -3.5; 50.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Ohio @ South Alabama | USA -6.5; 48.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State | JXST -3; 52.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Nicholls @ Sam Houston | SHSU -17.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| North Dakota @ Nebraska | NEB -25.5; 52.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Eastern Washington @ Washington | WASH -42.5; 57.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Michigan State @ Notre Dame | ND -29.5; 51.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| LSU @ Ole Miss | LSU -2.5; MISS +3 -108; 58.5 | PASS — persistent watch open; fixed target not reached |
| BYU @ Colorado State | BYU -17.5; 52.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| New Mexico @ Oklahoma | OU -21.5; 45.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| West Virginia vs Virginia (Charlotte) | UVA -10.5; 53.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Colorado @ Northwestern | NU -3.5; 47.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Virginia Tech @ Maryland | VT -3; 53.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Kennesaw State @ Tennessee | TENN -35.5; 60.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| UTSA @ Texas | TEX -30.5; 58.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Arkansas State @ TCU | TCU -18.5; 56.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| East Texas A&M @ Tulsa | TLSA -42.5; 56.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| UAB @ Louisiana | UL -7.5; 55.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| South Dakota @ Boise State | BOIS -25.5; 56.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| James Madison @ San Diego State | SDSU -1.5; JMU +1.5 -105; 46.5 | PASS — persistent watch open; fixed target not reached |
| Northern Illinois @ Arizona | ARIZ -33.5; 50.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| North Dakota State @ Sacramento State | NDSU -27.5; 50.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Purdue @ UCLA | UCLA -14; 52.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Montana @ Oregon State | ORST -17.5; 53.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
| Fresno State @ San José State | FRES -6.5; 49.5 | PASS — no verified price-adjusted edge cleared the morning threshold |
Coastal Carolina
Delaware
Georgia
Arkansas
Kent State
Ohio State
Buffalo
Penn State
Tulane
Kansas State
Bowling Green
Iowa State
Arizona State
Kansas
Mercer
Georgia Tech
North Carolina
Clemson
Akron
Minnesota
North Texas
Texas State
Eastern Michigan
Wisconsin
NC State
Vanderbilt
Wyoming
Central Michigan
Maine
Boston College
Southern Illinois
Illinois
Temple
Toledo
Kentucky
Texas A&M
Florida State
Alabama
USC
Rutgers
SMU
Louisville
Utah State
Utah
UTEP
Michigan
Miami (OH)
Cincinnati
Wagner
California
Duquesne
Washington State
Stonehill
Massachusetts
Western Kentucky
Indiana
Northern Iowa
Iowa
Stanford
Duke
Ball State
Liberty
Louisiana Tech
Baylor
Mississippi State
South Carolina
SE Louisiana
UL Monroe
East Carolina
Old Dominion
FIU
FAU
Charlotte
APP
Marshall
Missouri State
Troy
Missouri
Florida
Auburn
Georgia State
UCF
Murray State
Oklahoma State
UConn
Southern Miss
UT Martin
Memphis
Western Michigan
Rice
Delaware State
South Florida
Nevada
Middle Tennessee
Ohio
South Alabama
Georgia Southern
Jacksonville State
Nicholls
Sam Houston
North Dakota
Nebraska
Eastern Washington
Washington
Michigan State
Notre Dame
LSU
BYU
Colorado State
New Mexico
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Virginia
Colorado
Northwestern
Virginia Tech
Maryland
Kennesaw State
Tennessee
UTSA
Texas
Arkansas State
TCU
East Texas A&M
Tulsa
UAB
Louisiana
South Dakota
Boise State
San Diego State
Northern Illinois
Arizona
North Dakota State
Sacramento State
Purdue
UCLA
Montana
Oregon State
Fresno State
San José StateSEVEN-DAY BOARD
DAYBeyond today, the verified schedule adds: Liberty @ Coastal Carolina (Thu Sep 24); Army @ Temple, Howard @ Rutgers, Navy @ UAB, Northwestern @ Indiana, and Clemson @ California (Fri Sep 25). Current executable prices were not verified at this checkpoint, so each is a PASS — schedule watch only. Week 4 schedule
Army
Howard
NavyPOSITION WATCH
| Watch ID | Game | Market watched | Prior | Current / source / timestamp | Fixed target | Maximum playable | Thesis | Invalidation | Next check | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFB-2026-W3-HOU-TTU-HOU+10 | Sep 18 — Houston @ Texas Tech | Houston spread | +7.5 -112 | Final: TTU 28, HOU 26 | HOU +10 -110 | HOU +9.5 -110 | Historical watch; target never reached | Event completed | Closed | EXPIRED |
| CFB-2026-W3-SMU-LOU-SMU+3 | Sep 19, 12:30 p.m. PT | SMU spread | +1.5 -110 | +2 -111, CBS, Sep 19 5:05 a.m. PT | SMU +3 -110 | SMU +2.5 -110 | Explosive offense and matchup history | QB/OL loss or price worse than -110 | Sep 19, 10:30 a.m. PT | OPEN |
| CFB-2026-W3-LSU-MISS-MISS+3.5 | Sep 19, 4:30 p.m. PT | Ole Miss spread | +3 -112 | +3 -108, CBS, Sep 19 5:05 a.m. PT | MISS +3.5 -110 | MISS +3 -110 | Home dog and key-number value | Ole Miss QB/OL loss or line below +3 | Sep 19, 2:30 p.m. PT | OPEN |
| CFB-2026-W3-UNC-CLEM-UNC+3.5 | Sep 19 morning | North Carolina spread | New | +3.5 -120, CBS, Sep 19 5:05 a.m. PT | UNC +3.5 -110 | UNC +3 -110 | UNC 2-0; Clemson offense slow and market fell from -9.5 opener | UNC QB/OL loss or price worse than -110 | Sep 19, 7:30 a.m. PT | OPEN |
| CFB-2026-W3-JMU-SDSU-JMU+2.5 | Sep 19 evening | James Madison spread | New | +1.5 -105, CBS, Sep 19 5:05 a.m. PT | JMU +2.5 -110 | JMU +2 -110 | Low total magnifies underdog points | JMU QB injury or line below +2 | Sep 19, 5:00 p.m. PT | OPEN |
Watches are research, not wagers. Expired watches remain visible for auditability and are never retroactively promoted.
LINE MOVEMENT
SMU improved from +1.5 to +2 but the -111 price still misses the fixed +3 -110 trigger and +2.5 maximum. Ole Miss remains +3 while the price improved four cents from -112 to -108; the +3.5 trigger is still absent. North Carolina’s market has compressed dramatically from Clemson -9.5 at open to roughly -3, but +3.5 is currently taxed at -120. James Madison remains short of its +2.5 target. No target is moved.
INJURY/AVAILABILITY WATCH
LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt is off the availability report, reducing the uncertainty embedded in the Ole Miss watch but not changing its fixed price target. Every open watch still requires confirmed quarterbacks, offensive lines, weather, and late availability. LSU–Ole Miss update
NEXT CHECKPOINTS
Recheck North Carolina first, then SMU, Ole Miss and James Madison at the table’s scheduled times. A target hit triggers formal Grade review; it is not automatic authorization. Week 4 schedule-only games require verified executable markets before they can become watches.
No official wager. No AUTO_PICKS change. No model change.