MLB

Know-It-All Reports

MLB · KNOW-IT-ALL REPORTS

AI Capper Report

LIVE RESEARCH FEED · 2026-09-30 · Refreshes every 15 minutes
Historical model baseline: Sep 17, 8:53 AM PT

Live rows use the current schedule and market feed. They are research observations, not published official positions.

Market checked Sep 30, 5:44 PM PT · refreshes every 15 minutes

Find team or matchup

Green = favorable model discrepancy; red = unfavorable. Sort uses probability points for ML and scoring points for other markets. Estimates are experimental, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Sep 30, 7:00 PM PT · 30 games per team minimum

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

Chicago Cubs

CHET PROJECTION-104

DRAFTKINGS+123

DISCREPANCY+6.2 pp

Model score: away 5.1 · home 5.1. Simulated return per $100 risked: +$13.91 (model estimate).

Source 1 ↗

Sep 30, 7:00 PM PT · 30 games per team minimum

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres

CHET PROJECTION+104

DRAFTKINGS-149

DISCREPANCY-10.9 pp

Model score: away 5.1 · home 5.1. Simulated return per $100 risked: −$18.25 (model estimate).

Source 1 ↗

Sep 30, 11:00 AM PT · 30 games per team minimum

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves

CHET PROJECTION+128

DRAFTKINGS—

DISCREPANCY—

Model score: away 4.4 · home 3.9. No verified market quote for this selection.

Source 1 ↗

Sep 30, 11:00 AM PT · 30 games per team minimum

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

CHET PROJECTION-128

DRAFTKINGS—

DISCREPANCY—

Model score: away 4.4 · home 3.9. No verified market quote for this selection.

Source 1 ↗

Sep 30, 2:00 PM PT · 30 games per team minimum

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

Houston Astros

CHET PROJECTION+113

DRAFTKINGS—

DISCREPANCY—

Model score: away 4.3 · home 4.1. No verified market quote for this selection.

Source 1 ↗

Sep 30, 2:00 PM PT · 30 games per team minimum

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

Chicago White Sox

CHET PROJECTION-113

DRAFTKINGS—

DISCREPANCY—

Model score: away 4.3 · home 4.1. No verified market quote for this selection.

Source 1 ↗

Sep 30, 5:00 PM PT · 30 games per team minimum

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

New York Yankees

CHET PROJECTION-217

DRAFTKINGS—

DISCREPANCY—

Model score: away 3.4 · home 4.8. No verified market quote for this selection.

Source 1 ↗

Sep 30, 5:00 PM PT · 30 games per team minimum

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

CHET PROJECTION+217

DRAFTKINGS—

DISCREPANCY—

Model score: away 3.4 · home 4.8. No verified market quote for this selection.

Source 1 ↗

How the projection is calculated

10,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations per matchup. Up to 30 completed games per team, recency weights, prior-season results weighted at 45%, and eight league-average games of shrinkage. Scoring offense is matched to opponent defense. Home advantage comes from observed results and is capped. MLB/NHL use a Poisson scoring baseline; football/basketball/soccer use score simulations with observed variance. Ties are retained where the sport permits them.

ML is a model fair price. This baseline does not yet adjust for confirmed lineups, injuries, starters, surface, weight cuts, pace or weather and has no verified predictive track record. Missing sportsbook quotes are never manufactured.

Edition coverage and sources

30 teams · 30 team histories · 170 games with archived DraftKings markets. ATS/ROI/trends use the last 10 completed games per team; modeling uses up to 30. Previous-season games can be included and all dates remain visible in source records.

Results and boxscores: ESPN. Opening and current/archived prices: DraftKings via ESPN. Team-total prices, player-prop closing lines and verified bettor identities are not supplied by this connection.