GRADE SLATE
ChetBets MLB — Grade the Slate — September 16, 2026
KEY TAKEAWAY
Full 15-event board analyzed with one clear decision per event; no positions are official.
ChetBets MLB — Grade the Slate
September 16, 2026
Full same-day board analyzed: 15 events
Proposed research exposure: 4.00u
Official exposure: 0.00u
Source refresh: 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z
The score/form simulation uses up to 30 prior completed games and 10,000 deterministic simulations. Net Edge is a research comparison, not a calibrated win probability. Lineups, injuries, weather, travel and rest are not certified model adjustments unless explicitly present in the source record.
Ranked proposal board
| Rank | Exact market | Source price | Proposed units | Positive Edge | Devil Risk | Net Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Over 8 (-110) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 11.0 vs 8.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +54.3 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 2 | Over 7 (-107) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.0 vs 7.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +42.9 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 3 | Over 8.5 (-101) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 10.2 vs 8.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +41.1 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 4 | Over 7.5 (-108) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.6 vs 7.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +38.8 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 5 | Over 7.5 (-113) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.3 vs 7.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +32.8 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 6 | Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-149) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model -0.8 vs 1.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +30.3 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 7 | Washington Nationals +1.5 (-105) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 0.4 vs 1.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +27.9 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 8 | Over 8 (-107) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.3 vs 8.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +24.7 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
Los Angeles Angels
Washington NationalsEvery-game decision ledger
Every scheduled event receives exactly one decision. LEAN ONLY is non-canonical; PASS is no action.
| # | Start PT | Matchup | Exact evaluated market | Source | Units | Positive Edge | Devil Risk | Net Edge | Final recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 16, 10:00 AM | Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians | Over 7 (-107) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.0 vs 7.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +42.9 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 2 | Sep 16, 10:15 AM | San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals | Over 8 (-110) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 11.0 vs 8.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +54.3 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 3 | Sep 16, 10:40 AM | New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins | Over 8 (-110) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.2 vs 8.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +23.7 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 4 | Sep 16, 12:07 PM | Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays | Over 8.5 (-105) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.1 vs 8.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +12.7 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 5 | Sep 16, 3:40 PM | Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays | Over 8 (-107) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.3 vs 8.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +24.7 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 6 | Sep 16, 3:40 PM | Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds | Over 8.5 (-101) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 10.2 vs 8.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +41.1 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 7 | Sep 16, 3:40 PM | Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 7.5 (-113) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.3 vs 7.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +32.8 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 8 | Sep 16, 3:45 PM | Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals +1.5 (-105) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 0.4 vs 1.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +27.9 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 9 | Sep 16, 4:00 PM | Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets | Over 9 (-101) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.6 vs 9.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +9.1 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 10 | Sep 16, 4:40 PM | Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs | Over 7.5 (-108) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.6 vs 7.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +38.8 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 11 | Sep 16, 5:05 PM | Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers +1.5 (-187) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model -0.2 vs 1.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +12.6 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 12 | Sep 16, 5:10 PM | Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros | Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-157) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model -0.3 vs 1.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +21.0 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 13 | Sep 16, 5:40 PM | San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies | Under 11 (+100) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 10.3 vs 11.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +19.8 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 14 | Sep 16, 6:38 PM | Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-149) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model -0.8 vs 1.5 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +30.3 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
| 15 | Sep 16, 6:40 PM | Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 9 (-102) | DraftKings; 2026-09-16T14:04:44.428Z | 0.50u proposed; 0.00u official | Model 9.6 vs 9.0 posted | Unadjusted score/form model; lineup, injury, weather and rest inputs are not certified in this feed | +12.2 modeled EV per $100 | LEAN ONLY |
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays
Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
Baltimore Orioles
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
Seattle Mariners
Miami Marlins
Arizona DiamondbacksMLB market-mix compliance
Team/game markets were researched first. The verified board does not supply executable player-prop prices, so no player prop was invented to force the approximate two-thirds / one-third mix. The quality-based exception is verified-prop-price unavailable. Any future official whole-card allocation will use the nearest practical 2:1 team/prop mix only when both classes clear the information gate.
Markets not certified
Moneylines, spreads/run lines/puck lines and totals were evaluated where exact verified prices existed. Team totals, period markets and player props were not promoted without an exact source price. No missing market was reconstructed.
Final Positions remains the only canonical card. This report does not modify AUTO_PICKS.