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Soccer · KNOW-IT-ALL REPORTS

Line Mover Report

LIVE RESEARCH FEED · 2026-09-30 · Refreshes every 15 minutes
Historical model baseline: Sep 17, 8:55 AM PT

Live rows use the current schedule and market feed. They are research observations, not published official positions.

Market checked Sep 30, 5:44 PM PT · refreshes every 15 minutes

DraftKings opening line → latest retrieved pre-game line. Historical comparisons use the same team, direction, and moves between 50% and 150% of today’s magnitude, within up to 30 captured games. Small samples are descriptive, not validated signals.

Moneyline · Tepatitlán FC

Club Jaiba Brava at Tepatitlán FC

+270 → +425

-8.0 implied-probability pp

Tepatitlán FC's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Ferro Carril Oeste

Deportivo Madryn at Ferro Carril Oeste

-105 → +120

-5.8 implied-probability pp

Ferro Carril Oeste's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Exeter City

Rotherham United at Exeter City

+130 → +160

-5.0 implied-probability pp

Exeter City's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Salford City

Fleetwood Town at Salford City

-120 → -145

+4.6 implied-probability pp

Salford City's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Wales

Norway at Wales

+400 → +550

-4.6 implied-probability pp

Wales's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Cancún FC

Tapatío at Cancún FC

-195 → -160

-4.6 implied-probability pp

Cancún FC's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Lexington

El Paso Locomotive FC at Lexington

+100 → -120

+4.5 implied-probability pp

Lexington's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · British Virgin Islands

Montserrat at British Virgin Islands

+650 → +1000

-4.2 implied-probability pp

British Virgin Islands's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Manchester United

Liverpool at Manchester United

+115 → +100

+3.5 implied-probability pp

Manchester United's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Kazakhstan

Moldova at Kazakhstan

-155 → -135

-3.3 implied-probability pp

Kazakhstan's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Gillingham

Newport County at Gillingham

+120 → +105

+3.3 implied-probability pp

Gillingham's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Leyton Orient

Plymouth Argyle at Leyton Orient

+210 → +245

-3.3 implied-probability pp

Leyton Orient's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Londrina

Criciúma at Londrina

+170 → +195

-3.1 implied-probability pp

Londrina's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Correcaminos UAT

Cruz Azul Hidalgo at Correcaminos UAT

-145 → -165

+3.1 implied-probability pp

Correcaminos UAT's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Botafogo

Vasco da Gama at Botafogo

+150 → +170

-3.0 implied-probability pp

Botafogo's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Defensa y Justicia

San Lorenzo at Defensa y Justicia

+135 → +120

+2.9 implied-probability pp

Defensa y Justicia's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Albacete

Eibar at Albacete

+155 → +175

-2.9 implied-probability pp

Albacete's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Internacional de Bogotá

Once Caldas at Internacional de Bogotá

+160 → +180

-2.8 implied-probability pp

Internacional de Bogotá's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Boreham Wood

Altrincham at Boreham Wood

-275 → -240

-2.8 implied-probability pp

Boreham Wood's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Israel

Kosovo at Israel

+190 → +215

-2.7 implied-probability pp

Israel's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Curaçao

Trinidad and Tobago at Curaçao

-135 → -150

+2.5 implied-probability pp

Curaçao's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Real Sociedad II

Granada at Real Sociedad II

+140 → +155

-2.5 implied-probability pp

Real Sociedad II's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Hungary

Georgia at Hungary

-105 → +105

-2.4 implied-probability pp

Hungary's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Switzerland

Slovenia at Switzerland

-275 → -310

+2.3 implied-probability pp

Switzerland's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Bosnia-Herzegovina

Sweden at Bosnia-Herzegovina

+210 → +190

+2.2 implied-probability pp

Bosnia-Herzegovina's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Manchester City

Arsenal at Manchester City

+170 → +155

+2.2 implied-probability pp

Manchester City's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Leones Negros

Dorados de Sinaloa at Leones Negros

-195 → -215

+2.1 implied-probability pp

Leones Negros's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Boca Juniors

Unión (Santa Fe) at Boca Juniors

-160 → -175

+2.1 implied-probability pp

Boca Juniors's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Vitesse

NAC Breda at Vitesse

+160 → +175

-2.1 implied-probability pp

Vitesse's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Seattle Sounders FC

Sporting Kansas City at Seattle Sounders FC

-225 → -205

-2.0 implied-probability pp

Seattle Sounders FC's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Netherlands

Serbia at Netherlands

-550 → -475

-2.0 implied-probability pp

Netherlands's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Wales

Norway at Wales

0.5 → 1.5

+1.0 points

The spread moved away from Wales. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Norway at Wales

2.5 → 3.5

+1.0 points

The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Albacete

Eibar at Albacete

-0.5 → 0.5

+1.0 points

The spread moved away from Albacete. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Avaí

Ceará at Avaí

0.5 → -0.5

-1.0 points

The spread moved toward Avaí. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Cuiabá

Ponte Preta at Cuiabá

-1.5 → -2.5

-1.0 points

The spread moved toward Cuiabá. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Brighton & Hove Albion

Charlton Athletic at Brighton & Hove Albion

-2.5 → -1.5

+1.0 points

The spread moved away from Brighton & Hove Albion. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Aldosivi at Huracán

1.5 → 2.5

+1.0 points

The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Tigre at Argentinos Juniors

1.5 → 2.5

+1.0 points

The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Botafogo

Vasco da Gama at Botafogo

-0.5 → 0.5

+1.0 points

The spread moved away from Botafogo. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Reverse movement and “institutional money”

Price alone cannot identify large bettors or institutions. Confirming reverse line movement requires matched, timestamped ticket shares and price changes from the same market and book. That matching history is not yet available, so these reports do not label ordinary price changes as verified sharp or institutional action.

Edition coverage and sources

2006 teams · 2006 team histories · 0 games with archived DraftKings markets. ATS/ROI/trends use the last 10 completed games per team; modeling uses up to 30. Previous-season games can be included and all dates remain visible in source records.

Results and boxscores: ESPN. Opening and current/archived prices: DraftKings via ESPN. Team-total prices, player-prop closing lines and verified bettor identities are not supplied by this connection.