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NCAAF · KNOW-IT-ALL REPORTS

Falling Knife Report

LIVE RESEARCH FEED · 2026-09-30 · Refreshes every 15 minutes
Historical model baseline: Sep 17, 8:55 AM PT

Live rows use the current schedule and market feed. They are research observations, not published official positions.

Market checked Sep 30, 5:54 PM PT · refreshes every 15 minutes

Losing streaks of three or more games, with the next matchup and the price test for a rebound or a fade.

LOSING STREAK

Charlotte 49ers

↓ 11 losses

Average scoring margin: -24.1 over this run.

Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers

REBOUND CASE+215Model fair moneyline
CURRENT PRICE+850
Rebound price merits review

Baseline simulated rebound return: +$201.91 per $100 risked. The streak does not create a “due to win” effect. Confirm personnel, rest and matchup changes before treating a model discrepancy as actionable.

LOSING STREAK

UL Monroe Warhawks

↓ 10 losses

Average scoring margin: -21.3 over this run.

No next opponent in the verified eight-day schedule.

REBOUND CASEInsufficient dataModel fair moneyline
CURRENT PRICEUnavailable
No verified price edge

The streak does not create a “due to win” effect. Confirm personnel, rest and matchup changes before treating a model discrepancy as actionable.

LOSING STREAK

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

↓ 5 losses

Average scoring margin: -9.4 over this run.

No next opponent in the verified eight-day schedule.

REBOUND CASEInsufficient dataModel fair moneyline
CURRENT PRICEUnavailable
No verified price edge

The streak does not create a “due to win” effect. Confirm personnel, rest and matchup changes before treating a model discrepancy as actionable.

LOSING STREAK

Oregon State Beavers

↓ 5 losses

Average scoring margin: -13.8 over this run.

No next opponent in the verified eight-day schedule.

REBOUND CASEInsufficient dataModel fair moneyline
CURRENT PRICEUnavailable
No verified price edge

The streak does not create a “due to win” effect. Confirm personnel, rest and matchup changes before treating a model discrepancy as actionable.

LOSING STREAK

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

↓ 4 losses

Average scoring margin: -15.0 over this run.

No next opponent in the verified eight-day schedule.

REBOUND CASEInsufficient dataModel fair moneyline
CURRENT PRICEUnavailable
No verified price edge

The streak does not create a “due to win” effect. Confirm personnel, rest and matchup changes before treating a model discrepancy as actionable.

LOSING STREAK

Sam Houston Bearkats

↓ 4 losses

Average scoring margin: -15.8 over this run.

No next opponent in the verified eight-day schedule.

REBOUND CASEInsufficient dataModel fair moneyline
CURRENT PRICEUnavailable
No verified price edge

The streak does not create a “due to win” effect. Confirm personnel, rest and matchup changes before treating a model discrepancy as actionable.

LOSING STREAK

Northern Illinois Huskies

↓ 4 losses

Average scoring margin: -16.0 over this run.

No next opponent in the verified eight-day schedule.

REBOUND CASEInsufficient dataModel fair moneyline
CURRENT PRICEUnavailable
No verified price edge

The streak does not create a “due to win” effect. Confirm personnel, rest and matchup changes before treating a model discrepancy as actionable.

LOSING STREAK

Utah State Aggies

↓ 4 losses

Average scoring margin: -7.0 over this run.

No next opponent in the verified eight-day schedule.

REBOUND CASEInsufficient dataModel fair moneyline
CURRENT PRICEUnavailable
No verified price edge

The streak does not create a “due to win” effect. Confirm personnel, rest and matchup changes before treating a model discrepancy as actionable.

Edition coverage and sources

138 teams · 138 team histories · 288 games with archived DraftKings markets. ATS/ROI/trends use the last 10 completed games per team; modeling uses up to 30. Previous-season games can be included and all dates remain visible in source records.

Results and boxscores: ESPN. Opening and current/archived prices: DraftKings via ESPN. Team-total prices, player-prop closing lines and verified bettor identities are not supplied by this connection.