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NCAAF · KNOW-IT-ALL REPORTS

Line Mover Report

LIVE RESEARCH FEED · 2026-09-30 · Refreshes every 15 minutes
Historical model baseline: Sep 17, 8:55 AM PT

Live rows use the current schedule and market feed. They are research observations, not published official positions.

Market checked Sep 30, 5:54 PM PT · refreshes every 15 minutes

DraftKings opening line → latest retrieved pre-game line. Historical comparisons use the same team, direction, and moves between 50% and 150% of today’s magnitude, within up to 30 captured games. Small samples are descriptive, not validated signals.

Moneyline · Northwestern Wildcats

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats

+225 → +120

+14.7 implied-probability pp

Northwestern Wildcats's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Massachusetts Minutemen

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Massachusetts Minutemen

-130 → -238

+13.9 implied-probability pp

Massachusetts Minutemen's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · NC State Wolfpack

Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack

+250 → +154

+10.8 implied-probability pp

NC State Wolfpack's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Missouri Tigers

Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers

+110 → +170

-10.6 implied-probability pp

Missouri Tigers's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Moneyline · Air Force Falcons

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons

-115 → -166

+8.9 implied-probability pp

Air Force Falcons's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Mississippi State Bulldogs

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

+130 → +185

-8.4 implied-probability pp

Mississippi State Bulldogs's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Minnesota Golden Gophers

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers

+270 → +185

+8.1 implied-probability pp

Minnesota Golden Gophers's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels

55.5 → 47.5

-8.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Iowa State Cyclones

West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclones

-115 → -155

+7.3 implied-probability pp

Iowa State Cyclones's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs

57.5 → 50.5

-7.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Florida State Seminoles

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles

-102 → +124

-5.8 implied-probability pp

Florida State Seminoles's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Virginia Tech Hokies

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies

-205 → -162

-5.4 implied-probability pp

Virginia Tech Hokies's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls

51.5 → 46.5

-5.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +89.3% ROI.

Moneyline · UConn Huskies

Syracuse Orange at UConn Huskies

+170 → +210

-4.8 implied-probability pp

UConn Huskies's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · New Mexico State Aggies

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies

-112 → -135

+4.6 implied-probability pp

New Mexico State Aggies's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Spread · Northwestern Wildcats

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats

7 → 2.5

-4.5 points

The spread moved toward Northwestern Wildcats. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: +100.0% ROI.

Moneyline · Delaware Blue Hens

Liberty Flames at Delaware Blue Hens

+190 → +230

-4.2 implied-probability pp

Delaware Blue Hens's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies

53.5 → 57.5

+4.0 points

The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +95.2% ROI.

Total · Over

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons

49.5 → 45.5

-4.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Total · Over

Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers

53.5 → 57.5

+4.0 points

The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +95.2% ROI.

Spread · NC State Wolfpack

Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack

7.5 → 3.5

-4.0 points

The spread moved toward NC State Wolfpack. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: +89.3% ROI.

Spread · Massachusetts Minutemen

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Massachusetts Minutemen

-2.5 → -6.5

-4.0 points

The spread moved toward Massachusetts Minutemen. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · UNLV Rebels

California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels

-115 → -135

+4.0 implied-probability pp

UNLV Rebels's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Spread · North Carolina Tar Heels

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels

24.5 → 21

-3.5 points

The spread moved toward North Carolina Tar Heels. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Moneyline · Kansas Jayhawks

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

-2800 → -1350

-3.5 implied-probability pp

Kansas Jayhawks's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Charlotte 49ers

Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers

+1300 → +850

+3.4 implied-probability pp

Charlotte 49ers's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Buffalo Bulls

Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls

+550 → +440

+3.1 implied-probability pp

Buffalo Bulls's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Moneyline · North Dakota State Bison

Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison

-1800 → -1100

-3.1 implied-probability pp

North Dakota State Bison's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: +35.1% ROI.

Total · Over

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats

48.5 → 45.5

-3.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Spread · Mississippi State Bulldogs

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

3 → 6

+3.0 points

The spread moved away from Mississippi State Bulldogs. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Kansas Jayhawks

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

-21.5 → -18.5

+3.0 points

The spread moved away from Kansas Jayhawks. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

52.5 → 49.5

-3.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +87.0% ROI.

Total · Over

Syracuse Orange at UConn Huskies

53.5 → 50.5

-3.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Minnesota Golden Gophers

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers

8.5 → 5.5

-3.0 points

The spread moved toward Minnesota Golden Gophers. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Buffalo Bulls

Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls

16.5 → 13.5

-3.0 points

The spread moved toward Buffalo Bulls. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Spread · Missouri Tigers

Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers

2.5 → 5.5

+3.0 points

The spread moved away from Missouri Tigers. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 1 losses in 2 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -4.5% ROI.

Total · Over

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers

57.5 → 54.5

-3.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Virginia Tech Hokies

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies

-5.5 → -3

+2.5 points

The spread moved away from Virginia Tech Hokies. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · North Dakota State Bison

Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison

-21 → -18.5

+2.5 points

The spread moved away from North Dakota State Bison. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: +83.3% ROI.

Moneyline · Central Michigan Chippewas

Akron Zips at Central Michigan Chippewas

-225 → -250

+2.2 implied-probability pp

Central Michigan Chippewas's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Moneyline · Wisconsin Badgers

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers

-360 → -410

+2.1 implied-probability pp

Wisconsin Badgers's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies

56.5 → 54.5

-2.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Georgia Bulldogs

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs

-23.5 → -25.5

-2.0 points

The spread moved toward Georgia Bulldogs. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Spread · Ball State Cardinals

Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals

17.5 → 19.5

+2.0 points

The spread moved away from Ball State Cardinals. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 1 losses in 2 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -6.5% ROI.

Total · Over

Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers

54.5 → 52.5

-2.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Total · Over

Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison

47.5 → 45.5

-2.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 2 losses in 3 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -34.9% ROI.

Spread · Iowa State Cyclones

West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclones

-1.5 → -3

-1.5 points

The spread moved toward Iowa State Cyclones. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Air Force Falcons

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons

-1.5 → -3

-1.5 points

The spread moved toward Air Force Falcons. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · New Mexico State Aggies

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies

-1.5 → -2.5

-1.0 points

The spread moved toward New Mexico State Aggies. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

58.5 → 59.5

+1.0 points

The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Houston Cougars

UCF Knights at Houston Cougars

-12.5 → -11.5

+1.0 points

The spread moved away from Houston Cougars. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Boston College Eagles at SMU Mustangs

56.5 → 55.5

-1.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

-12.5 → -13.5

-1.0 points

The spread moved toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

54.5 → 53.5

-1.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +90.9% ROI.

Total · Over

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers

44.5 → 43.5

-1.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers

44.5 → 43.5

-1.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals

51.5 → 52.5

+1.0 points

The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes

44.5 → 45.5

+1.0 points

The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 2 losses in 2 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Spread · UNLV Rebels

California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels

-1.5 → -2.5

-1.0 points

The spread moved toward UNLV Rebels. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

1 wins, 1 losses in 2 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -2.4% ROI.

Total · Over

California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels

52.5 → 53.5

+1.0 points

The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Total · Over

Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack

59.5 → 58.5

-1.0 points

The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Florida State Seminoles

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles

1.5 → 2.5

+1.0 points

The spread moved away from Florida State Seminoles. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games (1 pushes). Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: 0.0% ROI.

Spread · Charlotte 49ers

Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers

21.5 → 20.5

-1.0 points

The spread moved toward Charlotte 49ers. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Central Michigan Chippewas

Akron Zips at Central Michigan Chippewas

-5.5 → -6.5

-1.0 points

The spread moved toward Central Michigan Chippewas. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.

Spread · Iowa Hawkeyes

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes

14 → 14.5

+0.5 points

The spread moved away from Iowa Hawkeyes. A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Spread · Tennessee Volunteers

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers

-7.5 → -7

+0.5 points

The spread moved away from Tennessee Volunteers. The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.

Comparable recorded moves

No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.

Reverse movement and “institutional money”

Price alone cannot identify large bettors or institutions. Confirming reverse line movement requires matched, timestamped ticket shares and price changes from the same market and book. That matching history is not yet available, so these reports do not label ordinary price changes as verified sharp or institutional action.

Edition coverage and sources

138 teams · 138 team histories · 288 games with archived DraftKings markets. ATS/ROI/trends use the last 10 completed games per team; modeling uses up to 30. Previous-season games can be included and all dates remain visible in source records.

Results and boxscores: ESPN. Opening and current/archived prices: DraftKings via ESPN. Team-total prices, player-prop closing lines and verified bettor identities are not supplied by this connection.