NCAAF · KNOW-IT-ALL REPORTS
Line Mover Report LIVE RESEARCH FEED · 2026-09-30 · Refreshes every 15 minutes
Historical model baseline: Sep 17, 8:55 AM PT
Live rows use the current schedule and market feed. They are research observations, not published official positions.
Market checked Sep 30, 5:54 PM PT · refreshes every 15 minutes
Find team or matchup DraftKings opening line → latest retrieved pre-game line. Historical comparisons use the same team, direction, and moves between 50% and 150% of today’s magnitude, within up to 30 captured games. Small samples are descriptive, not validated signals.
Moneyline ·
Northwestern Wildcats Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats+225 → +120
+14.7 implied-probability pp
Northwestern Wildcats 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Massachusetts Minutemen Eastern Michigan Eagles at Massachusetts Minutemen-130 → -238
+13.9 implied-probability pp
Massachusetts Minutemen 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
NC State Wolfpack Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack+250 → +154
+10.8 implied-probability pp
NC State Wolfpack 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Missouri Tigers Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers+110 → +170
-10.6 implied-probability pp
Missouri Tigers 's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Moneyline ·
Air Force Falcons Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons-115 → -166
+8.9 implied-probability pp
Air Force Falcons 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Mississippi State Bulldogs Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs+130 → +185
-8.4 implied-probability pp
Mississippi State Bulldogs 's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Minnesota Golden Gophers Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers+270 → +185
+8.1 implied-probability pp
Minnesota Golden Gophers 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels55.5 → 47.5
-8.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Iowa State Cyclones West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclones-115 → -155
+7.3 implied-probability pp
Iowa State Cyclones 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs57.5 → 50.5
-7.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Florida State Seminoles Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles-102 → +124
-5.8 implied-probability pp
Florida State Seminoles 's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Virginia Tech Hokies Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies-205 → -162
-5.4 implied-probability pp
Virginia Tech Hokies 's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls51.5 → 46.5
-5.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +89.3% ROI.
Moneyline ·
UConn Huskies Syracuse Orange at UConn Huskies+170 → +210
-4.8 implied-probability pp
UConn Huskies 's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
New Mexico State Aggies Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies-112 → -135
+4.6 implied-probability pp
New Mexico State Aggies 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Spread ·
Northwestern Wildcats Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats7 → 2.5
-4.5 points
The spread moved toward Northwestern Wildcats . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: +100.0% ROI.
Moneyline ·
Delaware Blue Hens Liberty Flames at Delaware Blue Hens+190 → +230
-4.2 implied-probability pp
Delaware Blue Hens 's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies53.5 → 57.5
+4.0 points
The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +95.2% ROI.
Total · Over
Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons49.5 → 45.5
-4.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Total · Over
Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers53.5 → 57.5
+4.0 points
The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +95.2% ROI.
Spread ·
NC State Wolfpack Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack7.5 → 3.5
-4.0 points
The spread moved toward NC State Wolfpack . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: +89.3% ROI.
Spread ·
Massachusetts Minutemen Eastern Michigan Eagles at Massachusetts Minutemen-2.5 → -6.5
-4.0 points
The spread moved toward Massachusetts Minutemen . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
UNLV Rebels California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels-115 → -135
+4.0 implied-probability pp
UNLV Rebels 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Spread ·
North Carolina Tar Heels Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels24.5 → 21
-3.5 points
The spread moved toward North Carolina Tar Heels . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Moneyline ·
Kansas Jayhawks Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks-2800 → -1350
-3.5 implied-probability pp
Kansas Jayhawks 's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Charlotte 49ers Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers+1300 → +850
+3.4 implied-probability pp
Charlotte 49ers 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Buffalo Bulls Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls+550 → +440
+3.1 implied-probability pp
Buffalo Bulls 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Moneyline ·
North Dakota State Bison Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison-1800 → -1100
-3.1 implied-probability pp
North Dakota State Bison 's market-implied chance moved down. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: +35.1% ROI.
Total · Over
Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats48.5 → 45.5
-3.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Spread ·
Mississippi State Bulldogs Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs3 → 6
+3.0 points
The spread moved away from Mississippi State Bulldogs . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Kansas Jayhawks Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks-21.5 → -18.5
+3.0 points
The spread moved away from Kansas Jayhawks . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks52.5 → 49.5
-3.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +87.0% ROI.
Total · Over
Syracuse Orange at UConn Huskies53.5 → 50.5
-3.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Minnesota Golden Gophers Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers8.5 → 5.5
-3.0 points
The spread moved toward Minnesota Golden Gophers . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Buffalo Bulls Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls16.5 → 13.5
-3.0 points
The spread moved toward Buffalo Bulls . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Spread ·
Missouri Tigers Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers2.5 → 5.5
+3.0 points
The spread moved away from Missouri Tigers . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 1 losses in 2 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -4.5% ROI.
Total · Over
Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers57.5 → 54.5
-3.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Virginia Tech Hokies Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies-5.5 → -3
+2.5 points
The spread moved away from Virginia Tech Hokies . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
North Dakota State Bison Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison-21 → -18.5
+2.5 points
The spread moved away from North Dakota State Bison . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: +83.3% ROI.
Moneyline ·
Central Michigan Chippewas Akron Zips at Central Michigan Chippewas-225 → -250
+2.2 implied-probability pp
Central Michigan Chippewas 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Moneyline ·
Wisconsin Badgers Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers-360 → -410
+2.1 implied-probability pp
Wisconsin Badgers 's market-implied chance moved up. Check whether the current price still offers value; the earlier price is no longer available.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies56.5 → 54.5
-2.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Georgia Bulldogs Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs-23.5 → -25.5
-2.0 points
The spread moved toward Georgia Bulldogs . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Spread ·
Ball State Cardinals Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals17.5 → 19.5
+2.0 points
The spread moved away from Ball State Cardinals . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 1 losses in 2 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -6.5% ROI.
Total · Over
Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers54.5 → 52.5
-2.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Total · Over
Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison47.5 → 45.5
-2.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 2 losses in 3 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -34.9% ROI.
Spread ·
Iowa State Cyclones West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclones-1.5 → -3
-1.5 points
The spread moved toward Iowa State Cyclones . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Air Force Falcons Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons-1.5 → -3
-1.5 points
The spread moved toward Air Force Falcons . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
New Mexico State Aggies Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies-1.5 → -2.5
-1.0 points
The spread moved toward New Mexico State Aggies . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs58.5 → 59.5
+1.0 points
The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Houston Cougars UCF Knights at Houston Cougars-12.5 → -11.5
+1.0 points
The spread moved away from Houston Cougars . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Boston College Eagles at SMU Mustangs56.5 → 55.5
-1.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon Deacons-12.5 → -13.5
-1.0 points
The spread moved toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon Deacons54.5 → 53.5
-1.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: +90.9% ROI.
Total · Over
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers44.5 → 43.5
-1.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers44.5 → 43.5
-1.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals51.5 → 52.5
+1.0 points
The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes44.5 → 45.5
+1.0 points
The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 2 losses in 2 priced games. Flat $100 Over bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Spread ·
UNLV Rebels California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels-1.5 → -2.5
-1.0 points
The spread moved toward UNLV Rebels . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 1 wins, 1 losses in 2 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -2.4% ROI.
Total · Over
California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels52.5 → 53.5
+1.0 points
The posted total moved higher. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Total · Over
Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack59.5 → 58.5
-1.0 points
The posted total moved lower. Scoring expectations changed, but weather, lineup news and betting activity cannot be distinguished from price alone.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Florida State Seminoles Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles1.5 → 2.5
+1.0 points
The spread moved away from Florida State Seminoles . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 0 losses in 1 priced games (1 pushes). Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: 0.0% ROI.
Spread ·
Charlotte 49ers Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers21.5 → 20.5
-1.0 points
The spread moved toward Charlotte 49ers . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Central Michigan Chippewas Akron Zips at Central Michigan Chippewas-5.5 → -6.5
-1.0 points
The spread moved toward Central Michigan Chippewas . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves 0 wins, 1 losses in 1 priced games. Flat $100 team-side bets at the closing price: -100.0% ROI.
Spread ·
Iowa Hawkeyes Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes14 → 14.5
+0.5 points
The spread moved away from Iowa Hawkeyes . A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Spread ·
Tennessee Volunteers Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers-7.5 → -7
+0.5 points
The spread moved away from Tennessee Volunteers . The move touches a common football margin (3 or 7). A price change does not reveal who placed wagers.
Comparable recorded moves No comparable priced games found in the observed sample.
Reverse movement and “institutional money” Price alone cannot identify large bettors or institutions. Confirming reverse line movement requires matched, timestamped ticket shares and price changes from the same market and book. That matching history is not yet available, so these reports do not label ordinary price changes as verified sharp or institutional action.
Edition coverage and sources 138 teams · 138 team histories · 288 games with archived DraftKings markets. ATS/ROI/trends use the last 10 completed games per team; modeling uses up to 30. Previous-season games can be included and all dates remain visible in source records.
Results and boxscores: ESPN. Opening and current/archived prices: DraftKings via ESPN. Team-total prices, player-prop closing lines and verified bettor identities are not supplied by this connection.