Final Positions

Only entries marked OFFICIAL enter the pick ledger.

Decision

Atlanta -1.5 at -105 is the lone official position. Milwaukee ML -138 and Minnesota ML -148 are 0u leans. Market mix: one team/game market and zero player props (100% / 0%); no player prop had both a verified executable price and enough support, so the normal mix is not forced.

Game (PT)	Verified market	Decision	Reason
Nationals at Tigers — 10:10 AM	DET -180; 8.5	PASS	Price too steep with Valdez at 4.06 ERA.
Blue Jays at Orioles G1 — 10:35 AM	BAL -122; 8	PASS	Baltimore starter TBD.
Twins at Giants — 12:45 PM	MIN -148	LEAN 0u	Better team; Prielipp 4.94 ERA and road price cap conviction.
Blue Jays at Orioles G2 — 3:35 PM	Incomplete	PASS	Both starters and stable price unavailable.
Brewers at Phillies — 3:40 PM	MIL -138	LEAN 0u	Henderson 2.51 ERA; Nola's 2.10 ERA over last 10 is the counter.
Cardinals at Pirates — 3:40 PM	PIT -118; 7.5	PASS	No price separation.
Rays at Yankees — 4:05 PM	NYY -154; 7	PASS	Low total and favorite tax.
Guardians at Red Sox — 4:10 PM	BOS -133; 7	PASS	Close Gray–Griffin matchup.
Reds at Braves — 4:15 PM	ATL -1.5 -105	OFFICIAL 1u	Sale 2.18 ERA/190 K versus Abbott 4.70/125 K.
White Sox at Royals — 4:40 PM	CHW -116; 8.5	PASS	Volatile offenses.
Marlins at Cubs — 4:40 PM	CHC -172; 6.5/7	PASS	Excessive tax in low-total game.
Mets at Rangers — 5:05 PM	TEX -108; 7.5	PASS	Texas starter TBD.
Diamondbacks at Rockies — 5:40 PM	ARI -158; 11/11.5	PASS	Coors variance and Kelly 5.00 ERA.
Angels at Athletics — 6:40 PM	LAA -131; 9.5	PASS	Bullpen/team volatility.
Astros at Mariners — 7:10 PM	SEA -143; 7.5	PASS	Kirby 4.24 ERA leaves no edge.
Padres at Dodgers — 7:10 PM	LAD -1.5 +100	PASS	Ohtani return status and rivalry variance.

Atlanta -1.5 -105, 1u risk

Positive Edge 8.7/10: Sale owns the slate's clearest starter advantage and the run line avoids the -255 moneyline. Devil Risk 7.2/10: a one-run win loses, late-season workload management and early lineup uncertainty matter. Net Edge +1.5. Maximum price -115; invalidate only for a Sale scratch or multiple unexpected Atlanta absences. Later movement appends an update and never rewrites this publication.

Sources: MLB probable pitchers · CBS MLB odds · Brewers–Phillies context

CANONICAL CHET CARD LEDGER

Card slot	Exact market	Odds	Risk	Positive Edge	Devil Risk	Net Edge	Class
1	Atlanta Braves -1.5 run line	-105	1u	8.7/10	7.2/10	+1.5	OFFICIAL

Exposure 1u; team/game 1, props 0.