GRADE SLATE
ChetBets MLB — Grade the Slate — September 17, 2026
KEY TAKEAWAY
Full 9-event board analyzed with one decision per event.
ChetBets MLB — Grade the Slate
September 17, 2026
Events analyzed: 9
Research leans: 8
Proposed research exposure: 4.00u
Official exposure: 0.00u
Source refresh: 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z
The model uses up to 30 completed games and 10,000 deterministic simulations. It is a research comparison, not a calibrated injury/lineup-adjusted probability.
Ranked proposal board
| Rank | Matchup | Exact market | Source price | Proposed units | Positive Edge | Devil Risk | Net Edge | Risk-manager note | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-163) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -1.0 versus posted 1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +31.8 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | LEAN ONLY |
| 2 | Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers +1.5 (-144) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -0.6 versus posted 1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +30.2 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | LEAN ONLY |
| 3 | Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros | Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-163) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -0.6 versus posted 1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +25.7 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | LEAN ONLY |
| 4 | Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays | Over 7.5 (-118) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model 9.0 versus posted 7.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +23.0 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | LEAN ONLY |
| 5 | Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets | Over 8 (-114) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model 9.2 versus posted 8.0 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +19.4 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | LEAN ONLY |
| 6 | Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-107) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -2.4 versus posted -1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +17.4 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | LEAN ONLY |
| 7 | Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers moneyline -144 | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | 8.4 percentage-point model/market gap | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +14.2 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | LEAN ONLY |
| 8 | Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-204) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -0.6 versus posted 1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +13.0 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | LEAN ONLY |
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White SoxFull-slate decision ledger
Every verified event receives exactly one final Grade recommendation.
| # | Start PT | Matchup | Evaluated market | Source | Units | Positive Edge | Devil Risk | Net Edge | Risk manager | Pass explanation | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 17, 9:35 AM | Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers moneyline -144 | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | 8.4 percentage-point model/market gap | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +14.2 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | Not a pass at Grade; remains a non-canonical lean. | LEAN ONLY |
| 2 | Sep 17, 9:40 AM | Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-107) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -2.4 versus posted -1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +17.4 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | Not a pass at Grade; remains a non-canonical lean. | LEAN ONLY |
| 3 | Sep 17, 10:10 AM | Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays | Over 7.5 (-118) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model 9.0 versus posted 7.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +23.0 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | Not a pass at Grade; remains a non-canonical lean. | LEAN ONLY |
| 4 | Sep 17, 12:10 PM | San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies | Under 11 (-120) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.00u | Model 10.6 versus posted 11.0 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +6.1 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | Modeled separation did not clear the research threshold. | PASS |
| 5 | Sep 17, 4:15 PM | Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets | Over 8 (-114) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model 9.2 versus posted 8.0 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +19.4 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | Not a pass at Grade; remains a non-canonical lean. | LEAN ONLY |
| 6 | Sep 17, 4:15 PM | Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros | Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-163) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -0.6 versus posted 1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +25.7 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | Not a pass at Grade; remains a non-canonical lean. | LEAN ONLY |
| 7 | Sep 17, 4:40 PM | Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-204) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -0.6 versus posted 1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +13.0 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | Not a pass at Grade; remains a non-canonical lean. | LEAN ONLY |
| 8 | Sep 17, 5:05 PM | Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers +1.5 (-144) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -0.6 versus posted 1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +30.2 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | Not a pass at Grade; remains a non-canonical lean. | LEAN ONLY |
| 9 | Sep 17, 6:38 PM | Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-163) | DraftKings; 2026-09-17T13:00:54.739Z | 0.50u proposed / 0.00u official | Model -1.0 versus posted 1.5 | Recency/score model is not calibrated for confirmed availability, lineup, weather, travel or rest. | +31.8 modeled return per $100 | Require a current executable price plus verified availability and environment checks before promotion. | Not a pass at Grade; remains a non-canonical lean. | LEAN ONLY |
San Diego Padres
Colorado RockiesMLB MARKET-MIX POLICY
Team/game markets were researched first. The connected board supplies no exact executable player-prop prices, so a one-third prop allocation cannot be verified and is not forced. This is the documented quality exception. Any future official card will use the nearest practical two-thirds team/game and one-third prop allocation only when both market classes clear the gate.
Market coverage
Moneylines, spreads/run lines/puck lines and totals were evaluated where exact prices existed. Team totals, period markets and player props remain unavailable when the feed lacks an exact market/price. Missing markets are not reconstructed.
This report does not modify AUTO_PICKS. Final Positions alone is canonical.