MLB — Grade the Slate — New Release
New release: one official at 0.50u. All four earlier MLB leans remain recorded separately. Three-pass manual review and original reports included.
MLB — September 19 redelivery
New publication: 2026-09-19T16:12:01.812Z. This release applies from this timestamp; it is not a backdated morning card.
| Rank | Selection | Status | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mets ML -120 | ORIGINAL LEAN | 0u |
| 3 | Padres -1.5 +141 | ORIGINAL LEAN | 0u |
| 4 | Yankees ML -138 | ORIGINAL LEAN | 0u |
| 5 | Jacob Lopez over 4.5 strikeouts +114 | ORIGINAL LEAN | 0u |
Mets
Padres
YankeesNew release: one official at 0.50u. All four earlier MLB leans remain recorded separately. Three-pass manual review and original reports included.
[Read the full new analysis, exact prices, countercases, sources and three-pass reconciliation](/sports/mlb/reports/final-positions/2026-09-19).
The full earlier slate inventory remains below. Its old PASS decisions and price snapshots describe that publication only; the new card above is the current decision. Earlier leans remain in the historical record at their original terms.
Review scope: fresh market screen, deeper matchup review of finalists and alternatives, adverse-evidence review, then one reconciled release. This does not claim independent model simulations or verified analysis of every possible player prop.
Earlier publication — preserved verbatim
Original publication: 2026-09-19T12:35:43.777Z
ChetBets MLB — Grade the Slate
Saturday, September 19, 2026
15-game board | Refreshed 5:35 AM PT | Official wagers: NONE | Official exposure: 0.00u
IMMUTABLE MORNING PUBLICATION
The Morning Scout already published Mets ML -120, Yankees ML -138, Padres -1.5 +141, and Jacob Lopez O4.5 strikeouts +114 as 0u leans. Those selections, prices, units, and classifications are locked. This report appends current-market availability without deleting or rewriting them.
COMPLETE GRADED SLATE
Current pregame markets are from the live DraftKings feed.
| Event | Start | Verified current market | Grade decision | \n | --- | ---: | --- | --- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ CHW | 11:10 AM PT | CHW -1.5 (+153); O/U 8; ML +119/-143 | PASS — weather risk and no verified price-adjusted separation. | |||||
| MIL @ BAL | 1:05 PM PT | BAL +1.5 (-155); O/U 8; ML -132/+109 | PASS — Milwaukee’s bullpen worked extras Friday and the road price remains taxed. | |||||
| BOS @ TB | 1:10 PM PT | TB -1.5 (+158); O/U 7.5; ML +117/-142 | PASS — Boston’s starter remained unconfirmed at the morning checkpoint. | |||||
| PHI @ NYM | 1:10 PM PT | NYM -1.5 (+164); O/U 8; ML +104/-126 | LEAN ONLY — original Mets ML -120 morning lean remains locked; the current price is still inside the -130 ceiling. | |||||
| ATH @ CLE | 3:10 PM PT | CLE -1.5 (+118); O/U 8; ML +154/-187 | LOCKED MORNING PROP LEAN — Jacob Lopez O4.5 Ks +114 remains unchanged; the current prop price is unavailable and the lean is not currently actionable until reverified. | |||||
| CHC @ CIN | 3:40 PM PT | CIN +1.5 (-136); O/U 9.5; ML -142/+118 | PASS — the road-favorite price remains expensive after Cincinnati won Friday. | |||||
| KC @ PIT | 3:40 PM PT | PIT +1.5 (-203); O/U 8; ML -101/-119 | PASS — near coin-flip pricing with no clean starter-market separation. | |||||
| TOR @ TEX | 4:05 PM PT | TEX +1.5 (-170); O/U 8; ML -125/+104 | PASS — mixed starter and strikeout signals do not clear the threshold. | |||||
| ATL @ HOU | 4:10 PM PT | HOU +1.5 (-204); O/U 8.5; ML +100/-121 | PASS — two playoff-caliber clubs are priced near efficiency. | |||||
| WSH @ STL | 4:15 PM PT | STL -1.5 (+157); O/U 8.5; ML +109/-131 | PASS — insufficient verified separation at the St. Louis price. | |||||
| SEA @ COL | 5:10 PM PT | COL +1.5 (-121); O/U 11; ML -149/+124 | PASS — Coors scoring and weather volatility dominate the edge. | |||||
| NYY @ ARI | 5:10 PM PT | ARI +1.5 (-143); O/U 7.5; ML -148/+122 | LOCKED MORNING LEAN UPDATE — original Yankees ML -138 remains unchanged; current -148 exceeds the -145 ceiling and is no longer actionable. | |||||
| MIA @ SD | 5:40 PM PT | SD -1.5 (+139); O/U 7.5; ML +131/-159 | LEAN ONLY — original Padres -1.5 +141 morning lean remains locked; current +139 remains above the +130 floor. | |||||
| SF @ LAD | 6:10 PM PT | LAD -1.5 (-163); O/U 7; ML +310/-403 | PASS — the Dodgers price is prohibitive and San Francisco’s starter uncertainty remains. | |||||
| MIN @ LAA | 6:38 PM PT | LAA +1.5 (-202); O/U 7; ML -105/-114 | PASS — true pick’em conditions with no verified lineup advantage. |
DET
CHW
MIL
BAL
BOS
PHI
ATH
CLE
CHC
CIN
PIT
TOR
TEX
ATL
HOU
WSH
STL
SEA
COL
ARI
MIA
LAD
San Francisco
MIN
LAAPUBLISHED LEAN LEDGER
| Rank | Matchup | Start PT | Exact market | Posted odds | Source price | Positive edge | Devil risk | Net edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI @ NYM | 1:10 PM PT | Mets full-game moneyline -120 | -120 | CBS morning board 5:05 a.m. PT; current DraftKings -126 at 5:35 AM PT | Scott/Painter starter gap at a moderate original price. | Philadelphia’s offense and divisional familiarity. | QUALIFIES | LEAN ONLY — LOCKED ORIGINAL; CURRENT MARKET INSIDE -130 CEILING |
| 2 | MIA @ SD | 5:40 PM PT | Padres -1.5 full-game +141 | +141 | CBS morning board 5:05 a.m. PT; current DraftKings SD -1.5 (+139) at 5:35 AM PT | Wild-card urgency and Friday’s 8-2 form. | Eury Pérez and one-run-win variance. | QUALIFIES | LEAN ONLY — LOCKED ORIGINAL; CURRENT MARKET ABOVE +130 FLOOR |
| 3 | NYY @ ARI | 5:10 PM PT | Yankees full-game moneyline -138 | -138 | CBS morning board 5:05 a.m. PT; current DraftKings -148 at 5:35 AM PT | Schlittler’s starter profile and New York’s 8-2 form. | Judge IL news and price deterioration. | MORNING EDGE ONLY | LOCKED MORNING LEAN — NO LONGER ACTIONABLE ABOVE -145 |
| 4 | ATH @ CLE | 3:10 PM PT | Jacob Lopez Over 4.5 strikeouts +114 | +114 | CBS prop board 5:05 a.m. PT; current prop price unavailable | 4.8-K projection cleared the plus-money threshold. | Traffic and early-removal risk; current price unavailable. | MORNING EDGE ONLY | LOCKED MORNING LEAN — CURRENT PRICE RECHECK REQUIRED |
Mets and Padres remain inside their original playable ranges. Yankees -148 is outside the published -145 ceiling, so the original -138 lean remains historical but is not currently actionable. The Lopez prop price is unavailable from the current feed, so its original +114 lean remains locked but must not be advertised as executable.
No official wager. No AUTO_PICKS change. Final Positions remains pending the 6:00 a.m. revalidation.
8:44 A.M. PT GRADE REFRESH — APPENDED
The 5:35 a.m. Grade and every locked Morning Scout selection above remain unchanged. The 7:37 a.m. Final Positions ledger currently controls and contains no official position. This section ranks the live markets for any later Final addendum; it does not retroactively promote a lean.
RANKED LIVE FINAL-REVIEW CANDIDATES
| Rank | Exact current market | Proposed units if later authorized by Final Positions | Positive Edge | Devil Risk | Net Edge | Risk-manager decision | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mets full-game ML -120 | 1.00u | Christian Scott’s 3.76 ERA versus Andrew Painter’s 5.54 and a return to the original price. | Philadelphia’s superior season body of work, divisional volatility, and unconfirmed later lineup. | MARGINAL POSITIVE — strongest current candidate | FORMAL FINAL RECHECK ONLY; not official. | Confirmed Mets core order, no adverse scratch, and price no worse than -130 preserve it; a starter/lineup change or price beyond -130 rejects it. |
| 2 | Padres -1.5 full-game +139 | 0.50u | Plus-money return remains above the published +130 floor; San Diego’s wild-card urgency and Friday 8-2 win support the ceiling. | Eury Pérez can keep Miami within one run; run-line variance is material. | SMALL POSITIVE | SMALLER-SIZE FINAL RECHECK ONLY; not official. | Padres core lineup confirmation and +130 or better preserve it; material rest or price below +130 rejects it. |
| 3 | Yankees full-game ML -162 | 0.00u | Cam Schlittler remains the strongest starter profile in the matchup. | Aaron Judge’s IL absence plus 24 cents of deterioration from the locked -138 lean destroys the value case. | NEGATIVE AT CURRENT PRICE | PASS CURRENT MARKET; preserve original 0u lean. | Only a return to -145 or better with the expected lineup would reopen review. |
| 4 | Jacob Lopez O4.5 strikeouts current quote unavailable | 0.00u | The locked +114 lean was supported by a 4.8-K projection. | No executable current price; traffic and early removal remain the loss routes. | UNVERIFIABLE | PASS CURRENT MARKET; never invent juice. | Exact O4.5 price at +100 or better plus confirmed role/lineup is required. |
TEAM MARKETS
The live team-market pool is Mets ML -120 and Padres -1.5 +139. Yankees -162 is a pricing trap and is rejected at the current number. The complete 15-game slate and the other 11 passes remain documented above.
PLAYER PROPS
Jacob Lopez O4.5 strikeouts remains a locked 0u morning lean at +114, but the current quote is unavailable. No player prop can be proposed for official risk without an executable price.
MARKET MIX
The live review contains two team markets and zero currently executable props. That is a documented exception to the normal two-thirds/one-third construction because the only ranked prop lacks a current quote; no substitute prop is forced.
CARD-SIZE POLICY AUDIT
Verified official positions across MLB, NFL and college football on September 19 remain 0 of the three-position hard cap. The two proposals above are sized 1.00u and 0.50u for later Final review only. The daily delivery target is currently missed and is explicitly flagged to Tim; it is not repaired by weakening evidence or treating this Grade report as the official card.
Sources: CBS MLB odds, MLB starting lineups.